Ranking the Most Likely Sixers to Be on the Team in Three Years
The Sixers are disturbingly likely to be in flux for the foreseeable future — MOC investigates which players are probable to actually be in it for the long haul.
It really is hard to describe what a whirlwind the last 12 months have been as a Sixer fan. At this time a year ago, I viewed the Sixers as being all-in on championship contention for the next 2-3 seasons. I figured that the “Big 3” of Tyrese Maxey, Paul George, and Joel Embiid would have at least a three year window. I thought of Jared McCain as a likely trade candidate whose career would max out as a bench player. While I didn’t think the Sixers’ long term future was necessarily bleak, I was certainly more excited by the idea of the present than what they could be in 3-5 years.
Nowadays, it’s hard not to wonder if the Sixers’ long term future is more exciting than the present – I wouldn’t blame anyone for being more intrigued by a potential McCain / V.J. Edgecombe-led team in five years than the 2025-26 Sixers.
So, given all of the uncertainty around the Sixers’ future, I figured it might be a good thought exercise to go through and rank which Sixers are most likely to stick around for the next three seasons. To be clear, I’m talking about the 2027-28 season – the final year of Paul George’s deal, and the last year of McCain’s rookie contract.
Here is a snapshot of their payroll from HoopsHype.
1. V.J. Edgecombe
Edgecombe takes the No. 1 spot here in large part due to the fact that any time a franchise invests a top-3 pick on a player, they’re not likely to give up on them within their first three years in the league; he would have to be a mega-bust in order for the Sixers to be looking to trade him in a few years. He’ll still be on his rookie deal at that point, making $12.2 million.
2. Jared McCain
This spot is where things start to get interesting. Tyrese Maxey is currently a better player and seems to have a far greater stature within the organization, but my decision to rank McCain here is essentially a bet against the current iteration of the Sixers’ roster – it’s really hard to envision a scenario in which George and Embiid continue to decline, yet the team still opts to keep building around Maxey and trade McCain. At this point, Maxey will be 27, and the Sixers will have almost no financial flexibility heading into the following season. It would unfortunately make a lot of sense to trade Maxey at some point, assuming McCain and Edgecombe develop as expected.
Of course, if everything were to go spectacularly well this season, McCain’s redundancy with Maxey could turn him into a trade piece. But sadly, I think the other end of the spectrum is far more likely – if George and Embiid prove unable to return to the players they once were, I think that over time, the hopelessness of the current roster, paired with how good McCain could end up being, will turn Maxey into a trade candidate.
3. Joel Embiid
I’m putting Joel here because I view his future as being boom-or-bust, and either one of those will lead to him remaining on the team – if he regains his MVP form, the Sixers will not trade him because he is too good; if his knee continues to be a major issue, the Sixers will not trade him because it will be impossible.
In the 2027-28 season, Joel will make $62 million, and will have a $67 million player option for the following year. Unfortunately, even if Embiid remains a shell of his former self, the best thing for the Sixers to do will be to eat that contract, rather than trade picks to get off of it or waive and stretch him – which they would almost certainly have to do in that situation.
4. Tyrese Maxey
Maxey gets the No. 4 spot here, primarily because there’s a solid chance that he is still the best player out of this entire group in a few years. If Edgecombe and McCain don’t develop, and Embiid and P.G. continue to decline, this franchise will very likely have nothing keeping it afloat besides Maxey.
I discussed scenarios above in which Maxey could end up getting traded, but the simple fact that he’s their only proven star who can be expected to stay healthy means that he can’t possibly be ranked any lower than No. 4.
5. Quentin Grimes
Grimes remains unsigned as of this writing, and recent reporting from Jake Fischer suggests that he may re-sign with the Sixers on a short-term deal. However, I still would put Grimes ahead of players like Paul George and Justin Edwards, simply due to the caliber of player we expect him to be at this point.
The case against Grimes would be his redundancy with Edgecombe and the fact that he seems desperate for a massive payday at some point, which the Sixers may be unable to give. However, one could just as easily envision a scenario in which he and Edgecombe prove they can share the floor, and that the Sixers are able to lock him up long term at a fair price.
6. Justin Edwards
Edwards will be in the final year of his very team-friendly contract in ‘27-28, making just $2.6 million. Honestly, I would hear out a case that he should be higher on this list, despite the fact that he may never be viewed as a true franchise cornerstone – his youth, value, and versatility make it such that the team will never have a pressing need to trade him.
That being said, I do think that Edwards could end up being a trade piece at some point in the future – if things start to feel a little crowded at the 2/3 spot, it might make sense to try to trade Edwards for a power forward who could help them round out their roster better. Still, I think it’s reasonable to expect Edwards to stick around on the Sixers through his current deal.
7. Adem Bona
Bona gets the seventh spot here simply due to the fact that he’ll be under contract and that he showed some promising flashes as a rookie. Oftentimes, these undersized hustle play big men turn out to be just flashes in the pan who will bounce around the league a while (see: Reed, Paul). But on the chance that Bona turns into a truly valuable rotation player, he has to get the No. 7 spot here.
8. Paul George
George gets the eighth spot here, just ahead of a bunch of players currently on the fringes of the roster. It’s very hard to imagine a scenario in which George and the Sixers are still in a happy marriage in 2028. If George lasts the entirety of his max contract on the Sixers – immediately after Tobias Harris lasted his entire max contract on the Sixers – I will be very, very surprised.
There are lots of things that could lead to George getting traded. If he plays well this season but the team still looks like it’s going nowhere, he could get traded to a contender. If he continues to decline, the Sixers will eventually be able to use him as salary filler once his deal turns into an expiring contract. Regardless, I think the least likely scenario (albeit still far from impossible) is that he’s still on the team in three years.
9. Johni Broome
Broome will be under (non-guaranteed) contract through the ‘27-’28 season, but I still am ranking him this low simply because I’m not all that high on him as a player. I am happy to be proven wrong if he pops!
T-10th: Trendon Watford, Jabari Walker, Dominick Barlow
Nothing against any of these guys – it’s just unlikely for two-ways and minimum contract guys to stick around in one place for a long period of time. Certainly, if Walker or Barlow flash some real development this year, they could earn a cheap, long term deal. But even then, chances are high they get waived or thrown into a trade at some point.
N/A: Kelly Oubre, Andre Drummond, Kyle Lowry, Eric Gordon
Simply no chance any of these guys are on the team in three years.
Mike O’Connor is the best O’Connor in basketball writing. Previously of The Athletic, you can find Mike on Twitter @MOConnor_NBA. Mike’s writing is brought to you by Body Bio, supplements based on science, focusing on your gut and brain health.
Love that Jared is #2, sad that Tyrese is #4.