How Good Is Joel Embiid Right Now?
MOC puts the big man's improved play in proper Joel (and league-wide) context.
I think often about the game that Joel Embiid played against the Brooklyn Nets on February 22, 2025 – his last game of the 2024-25 season. It was the final of five games in which Embiid had returned from injury during the month of February; his last attempt at giving it a go that season despite his chronic left knee issues.
As was the case in each of his previous stretches of games, Embiid’s health had visibly declined over the past several games. Whenever he returned from a long layoff that season, he looked OK initially – not like himself, but still a high-level player. But by the end of each stint, especially the last one, he looked like a complete shell of himself. He could hardly get up and down the floor. He went 4-13 from the floor for 14 points in 31 minutes during that Nets game, and was a -7 in a game the Sixers lost by two. Visibly, it was the worst I’d ever seen him look on a basketball court.
And given the level of pessimism that I had about Embiid’s long-term health after that game, I think any evaluation of Embiid’s level of play this season needs to start by providing that context. According to the overwhelming majority of NBA fans and pundits, this guy’s career was over a year ago – hell, many were still saying it was over a month ago, and they weren’t crazy to feel that way. But now, he is back on the court regularly, playing at an incredibly high level, and has yet to miss a single game this year due to left knee soreness – so far, he has only missed games due to rest, illness and right knee soreness. After Monday’s win over the Raptors, Embiid surpassed his total in games played (19) from last year.
Yes, he has declined considerably from his peak, and yes, his knee issues are chronic and could re-emerge at any moment. But just for now, I would argue we have already seen enough to call this one of the best stories in the NBA this season. This type of thing simply does not happen – once big men start having major chronic knee issues for over a year, things rarely get better. The NBA no longer has a Comeback Player of the Year award (nor would Embiid qualify for it due to the 65-game rule), but if there was such a thing, he would be the favorite for it right now.
Of course, given that his season has been somewhat up-and-down, plus the fact that he’s only played 20 games, it’s hard to put a definitive label on exactly how good Embiid is right now. But for my money: when he’s on the floor, Embiid is a no-brainer top-30 player right now. Take a look at the Ringer’s NBA top 100 – Bam Adebayo and Austin Reaves are 30th and 31st currently. You’d have a hard time convincing me that the impact levels of those two guys are on the same level as Embiid’s when he’s on the floor.
As I posted on Twitter Monday night, Embiid’s per-minute stats are nearly identical to those of prime DeMarcus Cousins. Embiid, of course, had an iffy start to the season defensively, but has generally been a better defensive player than Cousins was, even at his peak.
Perhaps the most encouraging indicator for Embiid’s scoring output is the fact that his efficiency on two-pointers is back to where it was at his peak – 55 percent this year, versus 56 percent in 2023-24. To be fair, it’s on a lower volume, and a far higher percentage of them are being assisted on (59 percent vs. 53 percent). Additionally, his at-rim percentages are still well below his peak (80 percent in 2023 vs. 64 percent this year). But his overall two-point percentage dipped all the way down to 49 percent last season. The fact that it’s hiked back up is extremely encouraging. He is back to creating efficient offense with bully-ball post-ups and self-creation out of short rolls – two of his bread-and-butter plays, and two of the things that this team needs the most from him offensively.
Speaking of short rolls, Embiid’s ability to make plays out of those situations has been one of the areas where he has improved the most from the start of this season, and it has paid major dividends for the Embiid-Maxey two-man game.
If you caught yourself feeling like their two man game hadn’t quite had the same synergy earlier this season, you weren’t wrong. In ‘23-24, defenses were guarding their two-man game much differently. At that time, the primary concern defenses had was keeping the ball out of Embiid’s hands as a roller. As such, teams generally defended their pick and rolls with some form of a drop coverage on Maxey. If that meant giving up pull-up 3s for Maxey, so be it. They did not want Embiid catching the ball in wide open space with room to either pull up in the mid-range or drive to the rim. Here’s a screen grab from a 10/28/23 game against the Raptors:
This season, teams have been showing much higher on these screens. Defenses have decided that if Maxey hits Embiid with a pocket pass 23 feet from the rim, they don’t care. They know that Embiid is not the driver that he once was, and that he has lacked both the ability and perhaps the stamina to take off with the ball 10-15 times per game in these situations.
Naturally, the onus was on Embiid to force teams out of this coverage; he had to prove to them that giving him an open driving lane from 22 feet was mathematically not worth it.
And over the course of the past couple weeks, he’s done that. The best example of this was the December 30th win over Memphis – the Grizzlies came out in this high coverage, and Embiid started to use the open space to create shots for himself:
And finally, later on in the game, Memphis finally relented and went back to a drop coverage. That allowed for Embiid and Maxey to connect on the types of pocket passes that made their two-man game so beautiful in 2023-24.
Since then, Embiid has only continued to torch the higher coverages on Maxey. Any time a big man shows too high or lingers too long on Maxey, Embiid is able to use the space and positioning it grants him to create easy offense.
This will continue to be an X’s and O’s battle to watch as the season goes on. If I’m an opposing coach, I likely would continue to show high on Maxey’s screens and force Embiid to create tons of offense by himself in order to beat me. But if he continues to decimate this coverage, you’ll see more drops, which will open up pull-up 3s for Maxey and pocket passes at 12-15 feet for Embiid. But either way, we are back to a “pick your poison” scenario for opposing teams – and a particularly deadly one – which was not the case last year and earlier this year.
To be fair, there are still certain areas where Embiid is a far cry from what he was at his peak. His 3-point percentage is all the way down to 23 percent, a distant margin from his career average of 33.4 percent. The shooting numbers should course-correct over time, though.
The area that is of more concern is Jo’s defense. The Sixers are still narrowly better defensively with Embiid on the floor (-2.2 per 100 possessions, per Cleaning The Glass), but they are getting absolutely crushed in their transition defense with Embiid on the floor.
Per CTG, with Embiid off the floor, the Sixers have the equivalent of the 3rd best transition defense in the NBA. With Embiid on the floor, they have the worst transition defense in the league by a mile. What’s worse, most of that damage is coming off of live rebounds – opponents are scoring a ghastly 143.5 points per 100 possessions when they push the ball off of rebounds with Embiid on the floor. I can’t even put that into proper context – just know it’s unfathomably bad.
This of course is caused by several things. For starters, any time your offense is run through a post-up heavy big man, your transition defense will likely be worse. Secondly, Embiid’s loss of top-end sprint speed allows opposing bigs to just beat him running down the floor. And lastly, Embiid’s increasing reliance on foul-baiting leads to a lot of possessions ending with him on the ground, leading to easy transition opportunities.
The Sixers can only hope that Embiid’s overall mobility and stamina continue to increase and that he’s able to recover better in transition. And again, to be fair, they are better overall defensively with him on the floor – especially when it comes to protecting the rim, where opponents shoot 6.5 percent worse with Embiid on the floor. But if this flaw remains as glaring as it is now, the wrong matchup in the playoffs could turn this into a disaster for the Sixers. It’s something they will have to monitor and improve as the season progresses.
Overall, Embiid’s current combination of strengths and weaknesses was what prompted me to look up the Boogie Cousins comparison in the first place – Joel still puts up elite offensive numbers, but the decline in defensive impact puts him into a category of offense-first big men of the Cousins ilk. Still, that’s not a bad place to be; Cousins made two All-NBA teams! Not many players can say that they’ve declined their way post-injuries into being a Cousins-level player.
Claiming to know what the future holds for Embiid would be dishonest. His health could continue to improve, or it could deteriorate in an instant – who knows. But right now, I have to say I’m thrilled both as a Sixers fan and for him personally that he’s been able to reach this level again. Embiid is back to playing at a level that I never thought I’d see from him again. If he’d had enough games played, he’d be a no-brainer All-Star – his numbers, combined with the team’s success and superior play with him on the floor justify that easily.
Right now, at this exact moment, with him healthy, I don’t think there are 25 basketball players in the world better than him. He’s fitting in well to a team that no longer needs him to be the sun, the moon, and the stars on either end. Things are clicking well for this Sixers team, and if the playoffs started today, I’d be scared to play against them.
Mike O’Connor is the best O’Connor in basketball writing. Previously of The Athletic, you can find Mike on Twitter @MOConnor_NBA. Mike’s writing is brought to you by Body Bio, supplements based on science, focusing on your gut and brain health.
This is a killer breakdown - the pick and roll coverage shift you identified is exactly the kind of adjustment casual fans miss. What strikes me is that Embiid's proving resiliance isn't just about health, it's about problem-solving when teams adapt thier schemes. I coached high school ball for a few years and the hardest thing to teach was reading how defenses were playing you diffrent game to game, and Embiid's doing that at the highest level after people wrote him off completley.
Mike this is awesome, though as opposed to past pieces I specifically meant the analysis. This time around I'll add the emotional impact due the hope it brings to me that all may not be lost with him. He clearly is hesitant wrt rim protection and other players do not fear him a much as they once did, but personally I am going to take this house money and go all in on continued improvement on D that can crux in the playoffs.