Edgecombe and Harper: Reacting to the Latest Round of Sixers Report Rumors

MOC catching up on the implications from some recent Sixers draft reports.

With the draft less than a week away, the rumor mill has finally started heating up. Last Wednesday, reports came in from Jake Fischer and Marc Stein that the Sixers had Baylor guard V.J. Edgecombe in for a meeting and workout, and even Tyrese Maxey was present. It was the first concrete report of the Sixers meeting with any of the top prospects in this draft, and shortly thereafter, Stein and Fischer reported that the Sixers would soon be meeting with Ace Bailey, which was later confirmed to be taking place on Friday before Bailey canceled the meeting at the last minute.

Additionally, other reports surfaced last week from Mike Scotto and Kyle Neubeck that the Sixers and Spurs have been engaged in talks involving the No. 2 overall pick. Neubeck also reported that the Sixers are unlikely to trade down past No. 4 unless they are “bowled over” with an offer.

With this massive serving of slop, I have lots of thoughts and reactions. Let’s dig in.

Why did all of these rumors start flying out of nowhere last week?

I think the context behind all of this is worth asking questions about. There had been nearly complete radio silence from the Sixers camp since the lottery, and then as soon as the news broke about the Edgecombe workout, rumors started flying like crazy.

This is all just a guess, but here’s what I think happened: I think Edgecombe’s camp leaked the news of the workout, and ever since then, the Sixers have been trying to flood the zone with rumors to dispel any perception that they are locked in on taking V.J. at No. 3. To be clear, I’m not saying there isn’t truth to any of the other rumors; I’m sure the Sixers would love to trade up, and I’m sure they haven’t yet fully ruled out Ace Bailey, but I think that the primary reason we heard about all of this in a 24 hour span is because they still want to be seen by other teams as open for business in case some great offer comes along to move up or move back.

The fact that the Sixers met with Edgecombe first out of any of these prospects, and that Tyrese Maxey was present, is a significant indication of their interest. Edgecombe fits the profile of players they have typically liked in the draft since Daryl Morey took over, and multiple plugged-in reporters have said since lottery night that the Sixers have real interest. He is now the consensus opinion to go No. 3 in most mock drafts.

At this point, I would be shocked if they stay at three and don’t take Edgecombe. That’s just my gut feeling from following the reporting and reading the tea leaves. The fact that they have launched such a propaganda campaign ever since news of the Edgecombe meeting came out is, to me, an indication that they felt like their cards were shown and they’re now trying to reintroduce some smoke screens.

How should we feel if they draft Edgecombe? And is Bailey still in play?

If you’ve been following this draft cycle at all, you probably already have somewhat of an opinion on Edgecombe, a 6’4” guard from Baylor with elite athleticism and defensive instincts. In case you’d like to know more about him, The Danny has you covered with a film breakdown of his game.

I’ll have more on him if the Sixers do in fact take him, but here’s a brief snapshot of my opinion for now: I like him a lot, I think he’ll be a beloved Sixer, and yet, I’m a little terrified of taking someone with the third pick in the draft who has shown such limited upside as a shot creator.

There is such small room for error for these types of prospects; if his jump shot is a little shaky, or his defense isn’t truly, truly special, you’ll look back on this pick in the same way that the Hawks and Cavs probably look back on De’Andre Hunter and Isaac Okoro – good players who contribute to winning and are fun to have on your team, but where you probably end up wishing you’d taken a bigger swing on a higher-upside archetype at that point in the draft.

The most realistic positive outcome would be something in the realm of Jalen Suggs, whose game-changing defensive ability and well-rounded offensive skill set justifies him being a top-5 pick in retrospect. But for every Jalen Suggs, there are three or four guys who just ended up being half-decent role players, like Hunter, Okoro, or Justise Winslow.

What Would a Win-Now Offseason Look Like for the Sixers?

True optimists on Edgecombe would point to the fact that he is so freakishly athletic and has such an incredible work ethic that he will find a way to become a legit shot creator. Jaylen Brown is an example worth citing there – he was insanely raw and looked like a deer on skates for most of his time at Cal, but managed to become a perennial All-Star thanks to his work ethic and natural gifts. The same could be said of Victor Oladipo. OG Anunoby is another lower tier example there, as he was insanely raw upon arrival at Indiana, and has now managed to become an 18 PPG scorer who can create a reasonable amount of offense for a winning team.

Still, citing outliers like Brown or Oladipo does not provide evidence that Edgecombe himself will be an outlier. I’ll be excited to have him on the team, and I wouldn’t rule out a leap into him becoming the type of shot creator that justifies him being a top-3 pick, but the most likely outcome to me is a supercharged version of De’Anthony Melton. That’s great; I’d love to have him, and I don’t think it’s a bad choice. But if I were making the pick, my preference would be to make a massive offer to move up to No. 2, or trade back one or two spots and take Kon Knueppel.

At this point, after having Ace Bailey No. 3 for most of this draft process, I’ve bumped him down a few spots after all of his antics and horrible quotes. It is abundantly obvious that he is determined to lean into being the absolute worst possible version of himself, and if he ever does decide to eat some humble pie and lean into his proper role, it will likely be years down the road and the entire process will be incredibly annoying for any organization to deal with.

For a franchise like the Sixers that has been plagued by talented losers, I’m much more excited about the idea of taking Edgecombe, given that the intel around him has consistently been that he’s an incredible kid with winning DNA. As someone who has constantly begged the Sixers to start prioritizing character and culture, I could never stick to advocating for Ace without abandoning those principles. While Bailey’s skill set and tools are more intriguing, Edgecombe and Knueppel are far and away the better options given what we know now.

How would Edgecombe or Harper fit impact the long term future of Maxey, McCain, and Grimes?

The Sixers are not in a position where they should be drafting for fit, but it is worth thinking about how a potential selection of Edgecombe, or a trade up for Harper, would impact their already crowded guard rotation in the long term.

The fact of the matter is that if all four guys are healthy next season, the third and fourth guards are going to be limited to around 25 and 20 minutes per game, respectively. It’s going to be exceedingly difficult to get them more than that without playing some truly insane lineups.

In the event that they take Edgecombe, I think that this is a non-issue for year one; if he plays 20 minutes per game on most nights, that’s plenty for him to be able to cut his teeth on. But if they trade up for Harper? Yeah, something’s got to give. No one out of that foursome – Maxey, McCain, Harper, Grimes – should be limited to 20-ish minutes per night, even with Harper being a rookie.

If a trade up for Harper does happen, the Sixers may want to explore sign and trade options involving Grimes that bring them back a power forward (Cam Johnson, anyone?). Worst case scenario, they could bring him back and trade him mid-season, but doing something that addresses a need and frees up the log jam before it begins would be far preferable.

A trade up for Harper introduces a ton of questions around the future of the Sixers’ guard rotation, but he is so incredibly good that I would support it regardless. One of the many benefits to having him is that he would give them a true lead guard next to Maxey/McCain; both of those two are elite off-ball players, and as we saw with James Harden, Maxey thrives when he has another ball-handler to play off of. Harper is absolutely a prospect worth trading up for, even if it costs them more than just that Clippers pick. I don’t know what it would mean for Grimes coming back this off-season, and I have no idea what the ultimate outcome would be for the Maxey/McCain/Harper trio, but I know that none of the outcomes would be bad.

In the event that they stay at No. 3 and take Edgecombe, the primary question becomes how the Sixers would go about adding depth to their front court. As I’ve written countless times, their No. 1 priority next season should be getting bigger. If they don’t trade back, they will have no real option to fill that hole in their front court without trading away future picks. I think there’s a decent case to be made that they should do that, but the far more likely outcome in my opinion is that do nothing meaningful to address that issue this summer, and use the first couple months of the season as a trial to see if this team is worth investing future capital in a starting-caliber power forward. Otherwise, they’re likely just going to patch together their front court with a bunch of minimum signings and hope that one of them pops.

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Mike O’Connor is the best O’Connor in basketball writing. Previously of The Athletic, you can find Mike on Twitter @MOConnor_NBA. Mike’s writing is brought to you by Body Bio, supplements based on science, focusing on your gut and brain health.