What Would a Win-Now Offseason Look Like for the Sixers?

MOC on what the Sixers could do this summer if they decide they're actually a good team again.

When things first started to go south this season for the Sixers as they got out to a 3-14 start, it became a popular phrase among Sixers fans to label last season as potentially being a “gap year.”

The logic of tanking for just this one season in order to keep their draft pick and re-emerging as contenders in 2025-26 seemed reasonable enough, even despite the disappointment of watching the most hyped season in years go down the drain. Multiple recent contenders have had so-called gap years – including the 2020 Warriors and the 2023 Mavericks – and both went on to reach the NBA Finals within the next couple years.

But then, as things started to go way south, and as Joel Embiid and Paul George proved unable to stay on the court for extended stretches, the idea of this being merely a one-year hiatus from contention sort of disappeared from the collective mind of Sixers fans, and the chances of beginning a true rebuild started to seem more likely.

And while I’m still of the mindset that something resembling a rebuild is likely in the Sixers’ future, I do think that it’s at least worth exploring how the team would operate if there’s a real desire to win now. If the team’s braintrust has any faith at all that a core of Maxey, George, and Embiid can still win a championship, they should and probably will position themselves to maximize those chances.

The obvious place to start is the question of how the Sixers’ mindset towards the No. 3 overall pick would change. Since the Sixers landed at three in the lottery, I’ve been pretty consistent with my belief that the most important thing they can do with this pick is to select the best player available. But if the Sixers believe that the team can contend next season, and that the 3-9 range is mostly the same tier, it would be insane not to trade back and grab another asset or useful player.

I wrote several weeks back that the No. 1 objective for the Sixers this offseason has to be getting bigger. They had a severe lack of long wings and power forwards on last year’s roster which resulted them being a terrible rebounding team with no defensive versatility. If they want any hope of contending next year, they’ll have to address that. Well, one of the problems with drafting in the top six this year is that it’s mostly composed of players who don’t fit that mold.

Asking Ace Bailey to play major minutes at the four in year one, given his lack of size and his raw skill set, is not a good idea for a contending team. None of V.J. Edgecombe, Kon Knueppel, or Tre Johnson will ever play major minutes at the four. So, if the Sixers are unable to fill this need even a little bit via their draft pick, they’ll have to do so via trade.

That could mean a trade back inside of the lottery, such as one for Herb Jones, Tari Eason, or Toumani Camara. Moving back into the 7-11 range would also allow the Sixers to sensibly draft a player who fits their current needs, such as Collin Murray-Boyles, Carter Bryant, or Derik Queen. At that point, the Sixers’ roster would at least be well balanced, and they could go into the year with an expectation that a healthy version of their roster makes sense on paper.

But if the Sixers can’t find a trade-down package that they like, or they’re simply insistent on staying at No. 3, their only real option to solve this problem would be to give up future assets, such as the 2028 Clippers pick, for a player who can shoulder major minutes at the four.

And honestly, I wouldn’t hate splitting the difference in that way between winning now and preserving their future; staying at 3 and taking the best player available, while also giving up future picks to help them improve for next season, is not inherently contradictory.

One Fake Sixers Trade-Back Proposal for Every Team Lower in the Lottery

For the sake of this thought experiment, let’s pretend that the Sixers take V.J. Edgecombe at No. 3, and then later trade the Clippers pick and a top-3 protected 2030 first round pick for Herb Jones. First off, that gives them a reasonably deep team heading into next season, with lots of defensive versatility. Second, the fact that the Sixers will likely not have their first round pick next season (it is top-four protected, otherwise it goes to the Thunder) takes some of the sting out of making a win-now move; there is no downside to elevating themselves in the standings. Third, as long as the Sixers are able to retain Herb for the long haul (his contract expires in 2027), they could still recoup at least one of those first rounders if they need to trade him at some point in the future.

So, as long as the win-now move involves the Sixers getting a young player who will retain his trade value, I would have no problem whatsoever with them giving up future draft capital for someone of that ilk.

It’s also worth pointing out that, while no one would or should have the Sixers favored as one of the top seeds, the Eastern Conference is gearing up to be the worst it's been in decades. There is no obvious dominant team, and several of the teams in this year’s playoffs are likely to be worse next year. A hot streak and good health for a month would give the Sixers as good a chance as they’ve ever had to make a deep playoff run.

The final possibility worth discussing here is the possibility of trading out of this year’s pick entirely. I’d rate this as being extremely unlikely, but given the number of star-level players likely to be on the trade market this off-season, it isn’t impossible. The Sixers could aggregate enough salary to trade for Trey Murphy. They could put together a shockingly competitive offer for Giannis if they include Tyrese Maxey. A McCain-Grimes-George-Giannis-Embiid starting five is pretty incredible on paper. A Durant for Paul George trade would also be pretty fun, though I’d hesitate to give up the third pick outright for that. Regardless, the options out there are pretty wide-ranging.

Personally, I think the most likely outcome for this off-season is either a trade-down for a lottery pick and a young role player, or a trade involving future picks for a young role player. This team has a gaping hole at power forward, and if they have any aspirations at all of being competitive next season, they’ll have to fill it. Minimum contracts and a mid-level exception is not enough – even if one of those signings is Guerschon Yabusele.

Overall, I think you’d have to feel reasonably good about both the present and future if the Sixers are able to come out of this off-season with a lottery pick from this draft as well as a starting-caliber young role player. I realize that this may not satiate everyone’s desire for a “win now” off-season, but there's a fine line between aggressiveness and delusion. Given what we saw from Embiid last season, it would be malpractice to mortgage the Sixers’ entire future, including Maxey, to trade for someone like Giannis. There’s a good chance that they would simply turn into the Bucks if they pulled off a trade like that – a team stuck in the middle of the East with no future assets.

As unlikely as it feels, the Sixers’ best chance of making a deep playoff run within the next 1-2 years is still with the Maxey-George-Embiid trio. The best way to have a “win now” off-season while not selling their soul is to retain their pending free agents, keep a pick in the lottery, and acquire a high-level young role player who can shoulder major minutes at the four. Anything short of that would likely ruin next season before it even began, and anything beyond that would ruin their outlook far longer.

---

Mike O’Connor is the best O’Connor in basketball writing. Previously of The Athletic, you can find Mike on Twitter @MOConnor_NBA. Mike’s writing is brought to you by Body Bio, supplements based on science, focusing on your gut and brain health.