What Can Daryl Morey’s Draft History Tell Us About Who He’ll Pick in 2024?
Raise your hand if you knew that Isaiah Canaan was a Morey pick back in 2013.
Shoutout to my friend Ben Pfiefer, whose idea I’m stealing today. Last week for Swish Theory, he evaluated Sam Preti’s draft history in Oklahoma City, and used it to project the likeliness of who the Thunder might take with the 12th pick in the upcoming draft. Naturally, I decided I should do the same for Daryl Morey.
Over his now 17 combined seasons of running both the Philadelphia 76ers and the Houston Rockets, Morey has acquired 24 different players on draft night, either by picking them directly, or by trading for them shortly after they were selected by another team.
Those players are:
By comparing the physical traits of these 24 players, as well as their statistical production for their college/international teams, I tried to find out if there are any thresholds Morey requires prospects to hit in order for them to be drafted by him. Here’s what I found:
Wingspan
Since 2012, Morey has only drafted one player who did not have at least a +3 inch wingspan, that being Hartenstein in 2017. Even then, Hartenstein still entered the NBA with a +2.25 wingspan, which is hardly a detriment. Some of this could be skewed by sample size, as Morey has only selected and kept 17 players over the last 12 drafts, six of which have come during the 2020 and 2021 drafts alone.
Still, whether it be Tyrese Maxey and his incredible +6 wingspan, or once-a-Sixer Montrezl Harrell’s imposing +9 frame, Morey seems to prioritize prospects with ideal NBA length.
Age
This is one where presumptions about how Morey acts does not reflect actual reality. He has no real track record of turning away from older prospects in favor of younger ones with more long-term potential, as 12 of the 24 players he’s picked were all at least 21 or older on draft day.
The two first-round picks he’s made as the Sixers’ President of basketball operations have trended much younger, as Maxey was not yet 20 when he was picked, and Jaden Springer was famously the youngest guy in his entire class when he was taken in 2021. It could be a sign that he’s changed his preferences over time, but by-and-large, most of Morey’s draft choices have next to nothing to do with a prospect’s age.
Shooting
Again, despite Moreyball being synonymous with analytics and three-pointers, Morey’s draft history doesn’t show much discrimination against poor-shooting prospects. He’s drafted everything from inaccurate gunners to shooters who are deadly accurate but far too hesitant. It really doesn’t matter.
The only real trend I could determine was this — Morey does not care about whether centers can shoot. Capela, Hartenstein, Harrell, Petrusev, Onuaku, Dorsey — all Morey picks, and all big men who entered the NBA draft as non-entities from behind the three-point line. If Morey does use one of his two picks on a backup center for Embiid, it will not be a requirement for them to stretch the floor from deep.
Physicality
Obviously, the best way to measure a player’s physicality is to actually watch them play, but stats such as rebounding rate and free throw rate are also solid measures of how readily a prospect embraces contact. Morey is more than fine with drafting centers who lack refined jumpers, however, his track record shows he is not on board with big men who can’t rebound.
Of the nine college bigs drafted by Morey, only one has not reached both an offensive rebound percentage of 10 and a defensive rebound percentage of 15, with that one being Donte Greene. Even then, calling Greene a pure center prospect is a stretch. Additionally, recent Morey picks in BBall Paul and Charles Bassey had absolutely monster rebounding numbers as college players. Any center Morey picks is going to be able to clean the glass.
Productivity
All-in-one metrics are generally used far too often to either overestimate or underestimate a player’s value, and box plus-minus (BPM) is no different. However, examining how the 20 different college players Morey’s selected each performed in BPM during their final pre-draft seasons is helpful in finding whether he has a baseline cutoff for productivity at the college level for his draft picks.
Most Morey picks recorded at least a 5.0 BPM during their college seasons (16 out of 20), however, the two worst BPM performers in the database by far were Isaiah Joe (4.3) and Tyrese Maxey (3.4). Prospect Maxey is really an illuminating look into Morey’s potential draft philosophy for one big reason — his college numbers were flat out bad.
Not only did advanced metrics paint Maxey as a middling player at Kentucky, but he also shot a ghastly 29.2% from three, the worst three-point percentage of any guard Morey has ever picked. Maxey also had the worst true shooting percentage (53.1%) of any of the 24 players in the sample. All Maxey had going for him coming out of Kentucky was his massive wingspan, his age, and his assist-to-turnover ratio (1.48). So why did Morey draft him…?
Draft Position Relative to Consensus
This was not a threshold that Ben examined in his OKC piece, but one I added after noticing how Maxey performed poorly in almost every statistical category one could use for draft analysis. I remembered how that pick in 2020 was universally cheered, with both Sixers fans and Draft Twitter analysts openly wondering how Maxey could have fallen all the way to 21. Likewise, it made me think about how there were plenty of people who had Paul Reed ranked as high as the top 30 despite him falling all the way to No. 58, and how the many of the same people who praised the Maxey pick were also in love with Springer before he was picked 29th in 2021.
It planted the idea in my head — what if Morey just drafts relative to a consensus board? There’s not a ton of available data on this for his drafts with the Houston Rockets, but there are easily accessible consensus boards that were published prior to the 2020 and 2021 drafts. Jon Chepekevich over at The Rookie Scale has been tracking and compiling consensus boards for a while now, and his data supports the assumption — Morey has consistently selected draft day “fallers” during his time with the Sixers.
Whereas some general managers are touted for having unique draft boards and not being afraid to take their guy 10-20 spots earlier from where he is usually mocked, Morey more often than not takes the common-sense option. It’s in line with what MOC wrote this past week when he evaluated his tenure as the Sixers’ leader — a lot of Morey’s actions have been “oh that makes sense” moves rather than wild, outside-the-box curveballs that no one saw coming.
It’s not too dissimilar to the draft philosophy prescribed to Howie Roseman and the Eagles, who routinely “win” draft night each year if you ask NFL pundits. Two years in a row, the Birds took a massive defensive lineman from Georgia who was expected to go a bit earlier, and both times, the collective reaction was “How did Howie Roseman get away with this?”
Morey doesn’t ultimately have some overarching draft philosophy that’s readily apparent in the prospects’ statistics or physical measurements, but some clear trends still emerge. He wants prospects with significant plus-wingspans, bigs who can rebound well are preferred, and most importantly, Morey will take a draft night faller if he’s there.
With all that said, here are the prospects I believe Morey will be looking at with the 16th overall pick in the 2024 NBA Draft:
Ron Holland II, G-League Ignite
If you told a draft nerd back in October that Holland could realistically fall out of the lottery, they probably would have smacked you in the face.
Holland entered the season in contention for the first overall pick before an up-and-down season for a bad G-League Ignite squad tanked his draft stock. The 6-foot-7 wing is currently ranked ninth in The Rookie Scale Consensus Board, and several recent mock drafts have him falling into the mid-teens. With a plus-3.75 wingspan, good rebounding numbers, and a bevy of supporters on Draft Twitter, I have a hard time believing that Morey would pass on Holland if he fell all the way to the 16th overall pick. The soon-to-be 19-year-old didn’t shoot well at all for Ignite this past season (24.0 3PT%), but in a draft barren for wing-sized players who can create with the ball in their hands, Holland offers as much upside as anybody in the 2024 class.
Devin Carter, Providence
The only thing that’s going to stop Carter from being drafted by the Sixers is a team picking in front of them. Carter has incredible length (6-foot-2 w/ a 6-foot-8.75 wingspan), posted a 1.3 3 A:TO ratio this past season with Providence, and is a freak rebounder, averaging 8.7 boards per game at the guard position.
There have been rumors that Carter got a promise in the lottery, and he’s risen up to 13th in the consensus big board over the past few weeks. It’s to the point where he’s likely to go ahead of Holland, as unlikely as that might have seemed at the beginning of the draft process. I’m very doubtful Carter will be available for the Sixers at pick 16, but if for any reason he slides, I’d bet Morey sprints the card to the table to get him in Philadelphia.
(For a full breakdown on Carter’s game, click here).
Ja’Kobe Walter, Baylor
I’ve been low on Walter for most of this draft cycle, largely stemming from my lack of confidence in his handle. That said, he came to Baylor as a five-star prospect and potential top 10 pick, but is now projected to go in the mid to late first round following a disappointing freshman season. Walter was billed as a lights-out shooter coming out of high school, but only made 34.1% of his 220 three-point attempts this past season. Though, as evidenced with Maxey, one rough freshman shooting season isn’t enough to scare Morey off a prospect’s trail.
At 6-foot-4 with a 6-foot-10 wingspan, Walter has a remarkable wingspan for a guard/wing prospect, and though he’s not regarded nearly as highly as Holland or Carter, there’s still logic to Morey betting on a talented freshman who might have gone in the lottery back when the college season started. Most importantly, Walter is much more likely to be available at 16 than either of the two previously mentioned players. He’s someone worth keeping an eye on as the draft approaches.
Yves Missi (Baylor) and Zach Edey (Purdue)
If Morey does go for a backup center at 16, both Missi and Edey meet the requisite wingspan and rebounding requirements (Edey’s rebound numbers are pretty absurd as one might guess). Someone like Duke’s Kyle Filipowski doesn’t profile much as a Morey guy due to his minus-wingspan and offensive rebounding numbers that leave a bit to be desired. Kel’el Ware’s OREB% also doesn’t hit the 10% threshold, but outside of that, he would hit the requirements of a typical Morey draft pick and his DREB% of 26.1 is impressive enough that it might garner an exception.
Stll, if the Sixers end up taking a big man to backup Embiid next season, Missi and Edey strike me as the two most likely candidates.
Isaiah Collier, USC
I went in-depth on Collier last week, and he remains a realistic option for the Sixers at 16. He’s no longer a consensus board-faller, as The Rookie Scale board has him all the way down to 17 in its most recent update. Still, talk to the right number of Draft Twitter people, and you can find more than a handful that have him ranked top five, if not top three. He was talked about in the same realm as Holland preseason, before a season for a college team that could best be described as turgid started his descent.
Though the Maxey parallels are real, Collier might not be Morey’s preferred target due to his lacking length. Whereas Maxey’s 6-foot-8 condor arms hinted that he’d have the ability to finish amongst the trees in the NBA and hang on defense, Collier’s wingspan doesn’t even reach 6-foot-5, giving him some of the shortest arms of any player in the class. Lacking wingspan is the same reason I believe Duke’s Jared McCain wouldn’t be much of a Morey pick either, and it’s the only reason I think Morey wouldn’t want to take Collier with No. 16.
2nd Round Prospects to Keep an Eye On
Isaiah Crawford, Louisiana Tech — He has some of the longest arms of any wing in the class, produced well at the college level, and also happens to be a Draft Twitter favorite who many believe should be going much higher than he will on June 26. He’s got a good chance to be a second-round Morey pick, and one I’d heavily approve of.
Enrique Freeman, Akron — Freeman is a rebound freak (complementary). He finished last season with a 32.8 DREB%, the literal highest mark of any player in college basketball. He did all of this despite standing only 6-foot-7 at the center position. If the Sixers move off BBall Paul this summer, Freeman has the makings of a replacement in that same mold.
Dillon Jones, Weber State — The second-highest DREB% in NCAA belonged to Jones, which is pretty absurd when you hear that he’s a 6-foot-5 guard and almost every high DREB% player in college basketball last season was a center. Add that in with his plus-6 wingspan and his cadre of supporters who have him ranked higher than 41, and Jones could very easily wind up in a Sixers uniform next year.
Daniel Olinger is a writer for the Rights To Ricky Sanchez, and author of “The Danny” column, even though he refuses to be called that in person. He can be followed on X @dan_olinger.
“The Danny” is brought to you by the Official Realtor Of The Process, Adam Ksebe.
Good insights… everyone also assumes a good chance of trading pick, but how about the prospects of trading up to get someone like Holland… if Daryl really feels like he can have a Maxey-esque impact, then it’s worth a future pick to move up to the Spurs or Memphis’ spots? If we’re gonna invest in an aging vet like PG, it would be nice to develop a future wing partner for Maxey at same time.
Great piece