Would Tre Johnson Make Sense for the Sixers?

One of the most offensively skilled players in the draft could be an option for the Sixers with the third overall pick.

“Just has a knack for putting the ball in the basket.”

“As natural a scorer as comes in this class.”

“The best pure scorer to sign with the Longhorns since Kevin Durant.”

This was the word out on Tre Johnson, not after his lone season of college basketball, but before he ever arrived at Texas. This is what was written about him coming out of Link Academy – and while other prospects sometimes change the perception of their games during college play, Johnson solidified it. He’s an incredible bucket-getter with NBA size, and has gradually emerged as an option for the Sixers with the third overall pick in the draft.

At first glance, drafting a score-first guard doesn’t seem like a logical move for the Sixers with Tyrese Maxey and Jared McCain already locked in as franchise cornerstones. But Johnson becomes a more understandable option when looking at just how impressive his numbers were for a 19 year-old guard, and how his measurements — nearly 6-foot-5 without shoes and a 6-foot-10 wingspan — outclass other top tier guards like VJ Edgecombe and Kon Knueppel.

Outside of the consensus top-two players in the draft, no one has a better highlight reel than Johnson. His penchant for making difficult, hand-in-your-face jumpers off the dribble is already at near -ll-Star level for an NBA player. He shot 39.7% from deep at Texas while launching 6.8 attempts per game, very few of which were just routine catch-and-shoots. He doesn’t always create a ton of space when separating from his defenders, but he is quick and confident in his moves, and has a real special ability to hit jumpers after throwing a behind-the-back cross at whoever’s guarding him.

Likewise, his off-the-dribble shot making also translates to movement shooting. Texas ran Johnson out of empty corner pindowns and staggered screens to get him extra space from his defender when catching the ball, and Johnson was talented enough to hit threes when he wasn’t fully set with his feet. McCain was at times used in a similar way at Duke, and being comfortable hitting jumpers while running at high speed and turning at sharp angles is a good way to find early playing time in the NBA. It’s a difficult skill that’s in high demand but comes in short supply.

Again, like those quotes at the beginning of the story, Johnson’s jumper is always what’s said first about him. But a supremely underrated aspect of his game is just how impressive his passing chops are. He “only” averaged 2.7 assists per game at Texas, which doesn’t seem like a ton given that few players in college basketball were given the ball as much as him and spent as much time dribbling as him. Some of that was due to the construction of the Texas offense, and like many star players, his assist numbers may have gone up if more of his dimes were properly capitalized on by his teammates.

However, even going back to his days at Link Academy, Johnson is a better distributor than he’s given credit for. His ability to flick passes clean through tight windows off a live dribble surpasses that of almost any other player in the class. He has the acumen and the courage to throw high leverage passes, just not always the propensity to do so. Between his scoring and his high-leverage playmaking, there really are few — if any — prospects that’ll step into the NBA day one and have a better offensive skill set than Johnson.

However, there’s also a reason that all the strengths of Johnson highlighted thus far are on the offensive end of the floor. Despite having an impressive wingspan and real height for a combo guard, Johnson left a lot to be desired as a defender at Texas. He currently has a very slender build, weighing in at just 190.4 pounds at the combine, and his effort and willingness to be physical at the point of attack was often lacking. Blow-by drives on isolations can be found a decent bit on his tape, and given that he’s a guard, he already doesn’t offer that much in terms of off-ball activity and weak side rotations to protect the rim.

If the Sixers take Johnson at No. 3, the first question out of everyone’s mouths will be what the plan is for the team’s defense long-term. Though a five-man unit of Maxey, McCain, Johnson, Paul George, and Joel Embiid might be able to light up the scoreboard, it’s putting nearly the full brunt of the defensive responsibility on the franchise center who’s coming off another major injury. Johnson would likely need to add a solid 10-20 pounds and up his engagement as an on-ball stopper to ever move up to defending forwards and wings at the NBA level.

Johnson averaged just 0.9 steals and 0.3 blocks per game while playing nearly 35 minutes a night. He also didn’t finish off many possessions on the glass for his team, averaging just over three rebounds per game.

How Good Is VJ Edgecombe?

And though Johnson is more than just a tough-bucket getter on offense as seen from those passing clips, there is reason to worry about how easily he slides into an offense with other talented creators. A lot of his college and high school possessions featured him dribbling the ball for 10-15 seconds at a time while his teammates stood around and watched, and could often end with him firing off an ill-advised shot that wasn’t likely to go in, even for a shooter of his caliber. It’s why he posted a respectable but not elite 55.7 TS% at Texas after shooting 39.7% from three and 87.1% on free throws. Those mid-range misses add up eventually.

Additionally, his lack of physical strength showed up on the interior and on passes that went haywire. He couldn’t always operate in a mass of bodies inside, either throwing up shots with multiple contests around him, or trying jump passes where he didn’t have a clear plan of where he was going next.

Johnson is never going to be a super explosive leaper or a physical force that creates good looks and opportunities inside using strength and shoulder bumps. He doesn't have that devastating first step and go that someone like Maxey does. He operates a little more like McCain in having to use footwork, creativity, and craft to work around bigger, stronger defenders, though he has the advantage of long limbs to extend around foes and throw them off with arrhythmic steps before using his supreme touch to finish a tough shot.

In my own evaluation, Johnson is a supremely talented prospect, and is not out of place in that group of Ace Bailey, Edgecombe, Knueppel, and anyone else whose name is consistently thrown out as an option for the Sixers at pick No. 3. Depending on how one feels about Knueppel, he might be the best shooter in that group, and has the highest upside as a passer and playmaker for others. But his fit in Philadelphia is a bit more difficult to see than it is for the others.

There are probably three questions that need to be asked when drafting him — could he feasibly ever play the small forward position in an NBA lineup, could he ever become a better offensive player than Maxey or McCain, and — if the answer to both of the first two questions is no — is it worth it for the Sixers to draft a player who might cap out as a superstar sixth man with the third overall pick? The answer to question one probably depends a lot on one-on-one interviews and the background work the Sixers do on Johnson, while question two is just a hard one to say yes to given how incredible both Maxey and McCain are, which really makes question three the vital one.

It’s hard to envision a world where Johnson can’t find any footing on offense in the NBA. The scoring is too potent and versatile, and the passing should help him fit into an NBA offense attacking closeouts and making good decisions, while also being scaled up to a more primary creator role when called upon. Unless he’s way too inflexible with his role in an offense, or somehow can’t hit the baseline level of defense despite having adequate tools, he’s a rather safe bet to contribute at the next level.

The fit isn’t great, and while drafting for fit at No. 3 feels stupid at surface level, the Sixers aren’t a normal “drafting at No. 3 overall” team. George was signed to join Embiid and Maxey in pursuit of a championship. That’s still the end goal even if last season ended with a 24-58 record. In the immediate future, the Sixers are most set at the guard positions, and that’s not even factoring in the potential return of Quentin Grimes.

Johnson is a wonderful prospect, and his talent warrants serious consideration with the third overall pick. But does he surpass his competition in skill and talent enough for the Sixers to overlook the roster fit concerns and use the third overall pick on him? It’s a question that the team and fans will probably be asking themselves over and over again until that fateful day on June 25.

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Daniel Olinger is a writer for the Rights To Ricky Sanchez, and author of “The Danny” column, even though he refuses to be called that in person. He can be followed on X @dan_olinger.

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