Why Are The Sixers So Bad When Joel Embiid Doesn't Play?

Daniel Olinger is a writer for the Rights To Ricky Sanchez, and author of “The Danny” column, even though he refuses to be called that in person. He can be followed on X @dan_olinger.

“The Danny” is brought to you by the Official Realtor Of The Process, Adam Ksebe.

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The Sixers got outscored by 108 points in the 99 minutes Joel Embiid was on the bench.

That stat is drilled into my head forever. The 2018-19 Philadelphia 76ers lost a second round playoff series to the eventual NBA champion Toronto Raptors on a Game 7 buzzer beater, by definition the slimmest of margins. They did this despite winning the 237 minutes Embiid was on the court by 89 points. As long as No. 21 was playing basketball, the soon-to-be world champs didn’t stand a chance. But none of that mattered because the 99 minutes where Embiid was on the bench were so wretched that the 2019 Sixers might have been better just kicking the ball into the stands at the end of each possession.

I remind you of that to say this — the Sixers struggling without Joel Embiid is nothing new. It’s why the emergence of Paul Reed has been cherished. The Sixers used to roll over and die every time Embiid checked out for a breather, as most of their backup centers had better qualifications for AARP benefits than real NBA rotation minutes. In 2023-24, lineups with Reed on the floor and Joel on the bench are +7.7 per 100 possessions. This year’s team doesn’t just lose the lead whenever their MVP takes a break.

But a new trend has emerged — the 2023-24 Sixers are terrible in games where Joel Embiid doesn’t play at all.

At first glance, that might not seem like a new phenomenon. Obviously, the Sixers are a lot worse in games when the league’s top scorer is out with an injury. But his absence has left a more glaring hole this season than it has in years past. The Sixers definitely dropped out of contender status in non-Embiid games, but they usually still looked like a frisky team that could make the backend of the playoffs, and every once in a while they’d even rip off a 4-5 game win streak without JoJo.

That is not the case this year. The Sixers are 2-6 in the eight games Embiid has missed, and were a Marcus Morris 4-point play away from being 1-7. Discounting Embiid’s rookie season in 2017 when he missed 51 games, the Sixers were 57-53 in the 110 regular season games that Joel Embiid did not play any minutes in over the past six seasons. It’s still early enough in the season that they could turn this trend around in the 7-8 games Embiid is still likely to miss later this year, but at the moment, the Process-less Sixers have gone from being a .500 team to being as good as the Charlotte Hornets.

Sixers’ Record in Games Missed by Joel Embiid

2023-24: 2-6

2022-23: 11-5

2021-22: 6-8

2020-21: 10-11

2019-20: 11-11

2018-19: 8-10

2017-18: 11-8

2016-17: 15-36

The final point differential hides how bad those six losses have been, too. The Timberwolves and Pelicans killed them, but the Sixers made meaningless comebacks in the 4th quarter to “only” lose by 13 and 10 points, respectively. The Bulls and the Jazz losses were wire-to-wire defeats where the opponent felt in control for the majority of the night. Only the weirdo games as Boston and Miami were competitive losses in Embiid’s absence. Even then, it was clear how overmatched the Sixers were.

Why do they look this much worse in non-Embiid games? Well, a lot of it does fall at the feet of their rising star — Tyrese Maxey.

He’s deservedly had his praises sung this season for his vast improvement. While it’s mainly his scoring leap that stands out, the passing has gotten better too. Assists are mostly a fake and useless stat (that’s a column for another day), but it’s worth noting that Maxey’s average has shot up from 3.5 to 6.6 assists per game this season, while his turnovers numbers remain virtually identical.

But Maxey’s passing is limited. Namely, it’s all centered around the fact that he gets to play with Joel Embiid. Watch through a compilation of Maxey’s assists, and all his best dimes are short roll feeds to Embiid, or kickout passes that are open because the defense has 3-4 people in the paint to try and take away the Maxey-Joel two-man game.

Looking thru a bunch of Tyrese Maxey's assists so far this season.

He's improved as a passer this year, tho I've noticed almost all of his best passes come when he's on the court with Embiid and can either hit him in short roll, or use his gravity to kickout to open shooters. pic.twitter.com/OK5NvnVzt0

— Daniel Olinger (@dan_olinger) January 9, 2024

These are all good passes! Maxey is an improved playmaker!

But, his best passes are all predicated on the idea that 1) throwing the ball to Joel Embiid is a good idea, and 2) the defense needs to have 80% of its players in the paint to try and stop Joel Embiid.

Even on my favorite Maxey assist of the season, it’s glaring how much Embiid’s presence assisted him on the play. The defense floods the key every time No. 21 is near it, making those skip passes to shooters infinitely easier.

The limitations in Maxey’s playmaking stand in sharp contrast to James Harden, who even at his old age is a top five passer on planet earth. I don’t believe 2022-23 Harden was a better player than 2023-24 Maxey, but he was more capable of amplifying this team’s supporting cast in nights when Embiid was out. Sure, Harden’s best pick and rolls came when he was working with the league MVP, but it’s not like he needed Embiid in order to unlock his passing. He could have the ghost of Donatas Motiejūnas setting screens for him and he’d still create open shots for his teammates.

The Sixers are still good in lineups with Maxey on the floor and Embiid on the bench (+4.3 per 100 according to CTG), but that’s because opponents haven’t designed their whole gameplan around the first five minutes of the 2nd and 4th quarters, when Maxey gets to rock out as Embiid catches a breather. The Sixers can get away with a lack of playmaking juice for short stints each game. All they really need is for Maxey to cook and get enough buckets for himself to sustain until Embiid checks back in.

It’s different when the other team reads “JOEL EMBIID — OUT WITH LEFT KNEE SORENESS” and can now gear their whole plan around bothering Maxey. Some teams have doubled Maxey off the pick and roll and bet that he isn’t as comfortable passing to Paul Reed in the short roll. Others like the Jazz spend all their energy trying to keep the ball out of Maxey’s hands, guarding him in a Box-and-One defense for the entire night. The only time Maxey really went off in an Embiid-less game was his 42-point beatdown of the Rockets. Other than that, his games without the MVP have ranged from downright bad to average-ish.

Jazz still trying their Box-and-One defense on Tyrese Maxey. Sixers tried to counter that in the 2nd Quarter by having Maxey set ball screens for Oubre and Pat Bev, which had varying success. pic.twitter.com/78LAs7JdQv

— Daniel Olinger (@dan_olinger) January 7, 2024

Harden was, and always has been, a floor raiser. In his prime, you could put four random dudes around him and he’d still get you 40 points and the league’s most efficient offense. Years later, he can’t get you the 40-piece, but just place competent NBA rotation pieces on the floor and he’ll still raise your offense well above sea level.

Maxey, by contrast, is a ceiling raiser. His speed, versatile shooting, finishing packages, and ability to just get on a freaking heater at any time make him a perfect partner for Joel Embiid, and one who can push this team to new heights as the second star. But he’s not a good enough passer, nor is he brilliant enough at scoring without Embiid to lift this team by himself. Maxey is good enough to push the healthy version of the Sixers to title contention, but his skills don’t really make the teammates around him better unless he’s also sharing the court with one of the three best players in the world.

I’m hard on Maxey here because he’s the only one on the current roster capable of bearing this burden. He’s far from their biggest problem in Embiid-less games.

Reed and Mo Bamba’s rim protection has been ghastly. Reed is significantly lighter and shorter than Embiid, and over time, teams become comfortable finishing through his body at the rim, while Bamba just doesn’t move well enough to be an NBA rotation center. The guy the Sixers paid $180 million to proves time and again he’s a hot and cold player who looks fine when the shots are going in, but can in the blink of an eye start missing everything and look unplayable. I love Nic Batum dearly, but he’s the ultimate example of a guy who can raise the ceiling, but not the floor. His passing and defense pairs perfectly with the league’s MVP, but is wasted in games where the Sixers don’t have an Embiid for him to pass to orbit around on defense. Batum is immensely, infinitely valuable to a great basketball team, but pretty useless for a bad one.

This is the problem — the 2023-24 Sixers are a team of ancillary, ceiling raising players, all centered around Joel Embiid. It’s great that guys like Batum, Melton, and even Maxey play in a specific way that compliments Embiid so well that they look like a true title contender when he’s healthy.

But they need Embiid on the court to build the foundation. If he’s not out there, there’s nothing for them to elevate. As Spike said on The Ricky after those Minnesota and New Orleans losses, everyone gets bumped up a slot in the hierarchy when Embiid’s out, and they’re really not capable of handling that.

This is one of the best teams in the NBA, and everyone knows that they need Joel Embiid in order to reach their goal. But this first half of the season has shown just how much they need him to even be competent. The Sixers look like a team that could win the title when Embiid plays, and a team that would miss the playoffs when he’s injured.