Who Should the Sixers Use as Outgoing Salary in a Trade?
The games are depressing again, so let's talk pre-deadline deals.
Back when the Sixers re-signed KJ Martin last summer to a two-year, $16 million contract, it was universally assumed that they gave him that contract primarily for the purpose of using him as outgoing salary in a trade. Martin played an extremely limited role on last year’s Sixers, and so, it seemed that paying him that sort of money was born primarily out of a desire to have ample money to send out in a trade – especially considering that the Sixers are over the first apron and cannot take back more salary than they send out in a trade.
But as the year has gone on, it’s becoming more and more unclear as to whether trading Martin is the most logical option for the Sixers. He has been playing excellent basketball, and the Sixers are a whopping 8.9 points per 100 possessions better when he is on the floor versus off. This also comes while other players on tradeable contracts, like Kelly Oubre Jr. ($8 million), Caleb Martin ($8 million), and Andre Drummond ($5 million), have struggled for long stretches to start the year. Eric Gordon ($3.3 million) is also out of the rotation, and figures to be a trade candidate as well.
So, assuming the Sixers still have plans of making a win-now trade to balance out this roster, it’s worth discussing which combination of players are most likely to be sent out in a trade. Let’s dive into each player’s likelihood of being sent out in a trade.
KJ Martin is still likely to be used as salary filler
Despite his improved play, I still think KJ is likely to be traded, and here’s why: First off, any trade, whether it includes KJ or not, is likely to be for a power forward. That is the Sixers’ biggest area of weakness, and it’s also where some of the most intriguing trade targets play. So, if the Sixers were to trade other players instead of Martin in order to upgrade the power forward spot, such a trade would then bump Martin down in the rotation, limiting his value to the team.
Second, while the Sixers do have a surplus of guards, it isn’t quite as excessive as it might seem. For now, it doesn’t seem as though Nick Nurse and the coaching staff are sold on the prospect of starting Tyrese Maxey and Jared McCain together and having them share the floor for long stretches of the game, so trading players like Oubre or Caleb Martin would give them less optionality at shooting guard. While I’m a believer in the Maxey-McCain backcourt, I do think that having Oubre as an option at shooting guard makes for a nice insurance policy against certain matchups.
Lastly, the one thing that we haven’t seen yet from KJ is whether or not he can thrive next to Joel Embiid. He is a very low-volume 3-point shooter, and the Sixers have to consider whether or not they believe he can handle significant minutes next to Embiid in the playoffs. Trying to squeeze the likes of P.J. Tucker, Matisse Thybulle, or Ben Simmons next to Embiid has proven to be quite difficult in the playoffs of years past, and while Martin is very good at lurking in the dunker spot, it’s possible he poses those same issues.
Still: his recent breakout is a very encouraging development. He is helping them win regular season games, and if he is to be dealt, he might prove to have positive trade value come February, rather than serving as mere salary filler.
Trading Andre Drummond seems to make more and more sense
Drummond’s play has been better lately, and his on/off numbers are slightly less ghastly than they were a few weeks ago, but I do think that trading him seems less scary than it did at the start of the season. Guerschon Yabusele has proven to be a reliable option at center, and Adem Bona has been competent in short stints, as well. Trading him away would not make for a replay of 2022 in which the backup center minutes then went to Deandre Jordan and Paul Millsap; the Sixers have competent options behind Drummond.
Secondly, Drummond’s best skill – rebounding – has not been as transformative as hoped coming into the season. With the Sixers committing to some bigger lineups with more size on the wing, his presence on the boards is less necessary.
Drummond’s $5 million salary is also extremely valuable in terms of trade filler, and he’s still a useful-enough player that he probably carries positive trade value (even if only a second round pick) for that type of money. It’s worth noting that combining Drummond and Martin’s salary gets you just about exactly to Herb Jones’ $12.9 million salary.
I’ve touched on Jones before as a trade target, but I really believe him to be the perfect fit. He’s one of the five best wing defenders in the league, he’s only 26, and he’s signed to a reasonable contract through 2027. Unless the Sixers plan on truly bottoming out this year, it makes total sense to push their chips in for him. I would happily give up something along the lines of this package in order to bring Herb to Philly.
Eric Gordon might be the likeliest trade piece on the team
Gordon has been awful for the Sixers, and has been out of the rotation since they started playing better. Still — I’d be shocked if some team out there isn’t willing to talk themselves into him and give up a second round pick in exchange for him.
Gordon was a very useful player as recently as a year ago, and Nick Nurse’s track record with shooters isn’t exactly great; he bases almost none of his offense around off-ball screening sets for shooters, instead asking some truly great shooters to plant themselves in the corner. The most glaring example of that at the moment is that Buddy Hield was a useful NBA player both before and after coming here, but seemed completely unplayable for most of his Sixers tenure. It wouldn’t shock me at all if Gordon can prove to be a valuable rotation player elsewhere after being traded.
This type of deal would be similar to the Pat Bev trade from last year, where the Sixers recoup an asset during a deadline where they were generally more buyers than sellers.
The Sixers should trade Oubre before Caleb Martin
It’s very possible the Sixers end up keeping both players, but if they do decide to use one of Kelly Oubre or Caleb Martin as trade filler, it should be Oubre.
There are a lot of reasons for this, but the biggest one is that Martin is locked into a four-year deal on a reasonable contract whereas Oubre is likely to opt out and seek a payday this offseason.
Martin also has a better career track record as a 3-point shooter, is a better off-ball defender, and generally plays more under control on offense. Oubre’s resurgence over the past couple weeks as well as Martin’s continued struggles may make it hard for many people to agree with this case, but if we’re looking at the big picture and factoring in their contract situations, Martin is the one I’d rather keep.
Could they package a few of these guys for a fourth star?
All of these conversations become irrelevant if the Sixers decide to go nuclear and package a bunch of them with draft picks in exchange for another borderline star.
Cameron Johnson – currently having a career year for the Nets while making $22.5 million – comes to mind here. I doubt that the Nuggets would think about blowing things up, but Aaron Gordon ($22.8 million) would be a great target, as well. If Minnesota’s season goes sideways and they look to cut costs, Jaden McDaniels ($23 million) is someone to consider.
I view all of these scenarios as being unlikely given the cost and long-term cap implications, but if the Sixers were willing to package three or more of their tradeable contracts, they could get to these salary figures with no trouble at all.
Mike O’Connor is the best O’Connor in basketball writing. Previously of The Athletic, you can find Mike on Twitter @MOConnor_NBA. Mike’s writing is brought to you by Body Bio, supplements based on science, focusing on your gut and brain health.