Will We Still Love Kelly Oubre Jr. Now That We Actually Expect Him to Be Good?

Oubre was the most pleasant surprise for the Sixers last season. But can he still be that pleasant when he's no longer surprising?

I'll admit it: A not-small part of me was hoping that we didn't re-sign Kelly Oubre Jr. this offseason.

Not because I didn't love him, or because I didn't think he was that good for us last year, or even that I didn't think he'd be the right fit for the team moving forward. Oubre was great for last year's team -- essential, really -- and by the end of the season I adored him as much as any Sixer not named Joel or Tyrese or BBall. It was strictly a quit-while-you're-ahead emotional hedging against what seemed, on some level, like an inevitable reversion for Kelly from the player he turned out to be to the player we always expected him to be. It was wanting to be able to look back on the experience with that hazy Oh Those Summer Nights sheen of a short-but-sweet relationship defined primarily by its peaks, without risking running into him at school the next year and finding out he's actually kind of a dick. 

It was a nice thought, leaving Kelly as an unforgettable one-season wonder with the Sixers. But instead, we decided to make good on our KIT promise with him and signed him to a two year, $16.3 million contract. Good deal, great deal, undeniably a bargain for the player Oubre was for the Sixers last year. The question, however, remains whether Oubre will still be that player now that we actually know from Game One that we need him to be that player -- and really, whether we'll even still be able to recognize him if he is. 

After all, the defining feature of Oubre's 2023-24 season -- more than the parading to the free throw line, more than the slow-developing passing game, more even than his confrontational relationship with the opposing fans and grudge-holding refs -- was that we never saw it coming. Oubre signed with us last summer for an unlimited Hoagiefest gift card, and while many of us tried to talk ourselves into the signing being a steal (he averaged 20 a game in Charlotte the year before! Don't look any closer at those numbers it's fine!) most of us believed the warnings we heard from fans and employees of his past teams that any amount of expectation with Kelly would result in a massive letdown. We went into the year hoping basically Kelly could be some combination of long reliever and lefty specialist, filling the void on occasions when we desperately needed someone to just come in and put up shots and generally helping us kill time during the regular season. 

Instead... he was good. Right away, he was not just productive on the team, he was important. He helped the team cohere, helped it flow, helped it get out to a 7-1 start to the season that truly none of us saw coming. His scoring production was essential but so was his athleticism, his energy, his defense (???) He had good games against the Bucks, Celtics and Raptors. He was the feel-good story on a team that was already basically a full season of Ted Lasso. It seemed inevitable that either regression to the mean or weird injury was about to strike him. 

Then, weird injury and regression both struck. He got hit by a car -- details still TBD there -- and then had a little more trouble fitting back in upon his return, though the team was still winning. But when injuries began to pile up for the Sixers and Oubre was called on for greater duty, he started operating more like a freelancer, and lost a good deal of both his efficiency and his charm in the process. By January, gravity was really hitting Kelly like a motherfucker, as the games of more shot attempts than points were starting to pile up as we'd always feared, and the sight of him forcing drives and chucking jumpers was becoming harrowingly dreadful.

But then the craziest thing about Oubre's season happened (yes, even crazier than him calling out entire generations of ref ancestry): He got good again. He saw the mean and was like mean sucks, let's get nice again. Not only did he finish the season on a scoring tear, averaging 19 a game over March and April, but seemingly out nowhere, he also learned how to playmake. No, he didn't quite match Mike's prediction of five five-assist games, but the fact that it was a legitimate will-he-or-won't-he conversation down the stretch -- notching his third five-assist game with three games to go in the season, after posting no such performances through the season's first 69 games -- was a true Process-era highpoint. He was playing hard, he was playing smart, and he was hitting big shots, even into our too-short playoff run. He was a great Sixer, straight up.  

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And now he's back. Which is awesome! We love Kelly now, and Kelly loves us now, and we're all going to be together at very agreeable personal expense. But this time, we're inking him into that starting role -- that starting two-guard role, no less, as much as our interchangeably sized wings have discrete positions -- from Day One. Now, he doesn't have that cushion of soft expectations, that lifetime-slacker ability to look like a model student just by actually showing up to class on time for once. He's truly a salaried employee now, so if he has that month or two where he's playing more like an independent contractor, it's gonna be a real problem. Will he still play with the focus and tenacity of a player with something to prove, now that he's being paid like someone who's already proven it? 

Personally, I'm very 50/50 on it. The improvement he showed last year felt real, and though mistakes were made by all in the playoffs, he was still a guy I trusted to capably represent our organization whenever he was out there. But man, doubling down on Kelly Oubre types -- as much as he can be considered anything but a one-of-one -- is so rarely a smart bet in this league; you usually want those guys before they sign the made-good contract, not after. The fact that it's still a pretty team-friendly deal makes me a little less nervous, as does the fact that the arrival of Paul George and other attention-grabbing vets to the roster means that there won't be undue focus on Oubre's specific role and whether or not he's living up to it, particularly not to start the season. I just worry that Oubre's spot is one we will really need stability from more than anything else, and Oubre and stability.... they may not be total strangers, but they ain't old friends either. Things could go sideways there in a hurry, and we don't necessarily have a great backup plan for if and when that happens.

Ultimately, I'm still more glad than not that Kelly Oubre Jr. is back on the Sixers this season. We still need a lot of the things he provides, particularly in the intangible sense: We need his forcefulness, his nastiness, his hype. It's a long regular season, for Joel in particular -- and as Anthony Edwards showed at the Olympics, he needs a trusted teammate to be his crotch-chopping cheerleader. Paul George is too workmanlike at this point, and Tyrese has his own hero's journey to complete. We need a little of that chaos from Kelly, a little of his unpredictability, a little knight-style chess movement. But only a little, because when he's not doing that stuff, we also need a good deal of pawn shit from him. It's gonna be a delicate balance, and I don't know how he's gonna pull it off. After last year, though, it's fair to say that we should probably give him the benefit of the doubt -- even if he ends up ripping our summer dreams at the seams, he's still earned the right to Tell Us More.

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Andrew Unterberger writes for The Rights To Ricky Sanchez, as part of the 'If Not, Pick Will Convey as Two Second-Rounders' section of the site. You can follow Andrew on Twitter @AUGetoffmygold and can also read him at Billboard. 

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