Should the Sixers Stay at No. 3 or Trade Back in the Draft?

MOC looks at one of the most pressing questions facing the Sixers -- who did NOT lose their first-round pick -- on draft night.

Even despite me not screaming from the mountaintops that the Sixers need to fire Daryl Morey, one of the fair criticisms I’ve acknowledged in the past about Morey’s time with the Sixers is the fact that a lot of his best moves were things that were either fairly obvious or fell directly into his lap.

Drafting Tyrese Maxey in 2020 was arguably the best move of his tenure, but was sort of a no-brainer. Trading Josh Richardson for Seth Curry, or the No. 23 pick in 2022 for De’Anthony Melton, were not only fairly intuitive, but were explicitly suggested by myself and many others before they happened. Landing James Harden in exchange for Ben Simmons was a huge win, but again, not any sort of crazy, against-the-grain thinking that we must laud Morey’s imagination for dreaming up. I think the most salient criticism of his time here is that most of his wins are simply doing the things that any competent general manager would do in his situation – which to be clear, he does still deserve credit for actually doing.

But now, with the Sixers suddenly holding the No. 3 pick in the 2025 draft, no such slam-dunk option with the backing of an overwhelming consensus exists. Even if Morey follows the most commonly projected path – keeping the pick and drafting Ace Bailey – it will be met with enormous skepticism, and the “what-ifs” will be brought up for many years to come. Bailey is an extraordinarily polarizing prospect with some very glaring flaws, and to bet on a boom-or-bust prospect with all the options the Sixers have would require some real conviction on Morey’s part.

It’s also important to consider the Sixers’ unique situation given the state of the rest of their roster. Many would consider it irresponsible to be thinking in terms of winning now, given how bad they were last season and how many question marks surround their current roster, but the fact is that with three max contract players on their roster and an Eastern Conference that is suddenly more wide open than ever (more on that in a bit), you can’t possibly ignore how their handling of this draft pick would impact the Sixers’ hopes of winning anything in the next 2-3 years.

Below, I’d like to go through a couple of guiding principles that should drive Morey’s thinking, and give my current line of thinking on how the Sixers should proceed.

Drafting a potential star player is far and away the most important thing to accomplish with this pick

There is simply no more valuable thing that can happen to your franchise in the NBA than drafting a superstar player in the first round. You get nine years of full team control over an elite NBA player, the first four of which come at an incredible discount. It is the basis through which the overwhelming majority of title contenders are built.

There are sure to be plenty of options for the Sixers to trade back or trade out of this pick, and many of them will come with a lot of value. But there is really only one reason to move out of the No. 3 overall pick – if you feel extremely confident that neither Ace Bailey nor V.J. Edgecombe is materially better than the player you are trading back for.

Drafting the right player is really all that matters. Trading with, say Washington, and getting picks 6 and 18 in exchange for No. 3 would be roughly fair value given the history of these types of trades. And while I’d give that real consideration, if Bailey turns out to be a star and the No. 6 pick turns out to just be a quality starter, that trade is an abject disaster.

Again, the Sixers’ North Star has to be getting the player they think is the best, or one of the best prospects available if they consider multiple players on the same level. Getting a superstar can change the course of your franchise for decades. Getting a solid starter can help you be marginally better for a couple of years. Moving back would be first and foremost a bet against Bailey and Edgecombe, and any asset they get in return for doing so is just a gift from another team to help them hedge against that bet.

It really doesn’t matter if the Sixers’ goal is to win now or win later. The most important thing in either scenario is, obviously, drafting the best player available. But with that being said…

The Sixers Must Get Bigger This Off-Season

If the Sixers do decide to trade back, they should look for win-now assets in return

I fully understand those that argue that the Sixers should operate now as if they are already in a rebuild, and try to accumulate draft picks in service of being contenders in 3-5 years. But the fact of the matter is that the Sixers have three max contract players on their roster, and even their young players like McCain and Grimes seem very much ready to contribute to winning.

These Sixers are not in a spot like the Process Sixers, who once traded back from No. 10 to No. 12 to draft and stash Dario Saric and recoup a future first. They are on a different timeline, and their reward for trading back should be players who can help them now.

This, for example, would make me more willing to trade No. 3 to Houston for No. 10 and Tari Eason, or No. 3 to New Orleans for No. 7 and Herb Jones, rather than trading with Washington for a package built around picks 6 and 18, or with Brooklyn for the 8th pick and the return of the Sixers’ 2027 first.

At some point, I’ll write an article with several proposals for trade-back scenarios. I think the Sixers’ options on this front will be almost limitless. Tons of teams will have interest in Bailey and Edgecombe, and lots of teams in the mid-late lottery have valuable players who make sense for the Sixers in a trade-back scenario.

The other dynamic at play here, which I rarely would consider in this context, but has to be discussed given how extreme it is: With Jayson Tatum being sidelined for most likely all of next season (plus the Celtics likely having to dump salary elsewhere), Giannis potentially headed out West, and the Cavs set to lose some depth in free agency, the Eastern Conference is incredibly, ridiculously wide open. If the Sixers can put together a somewhat competent roster for next season, they would be roughly four healthy Embiid weeks away from waltzing to the Conference Finals.

Again – they should only do it if they think they can draft a player as good or better than Bailey or Edgecombe with one of those picks. But if they do trade back, I’d be looking for a piece that can help next year’s roster make some noise.

As for where I personally stand, I’m on Team Trade Back. I simply don’t think Bailey or Edgecombe are much better than the players you could draft in the 6-10 range, and there more than likely is a team in that range that would be willing to overpay to move up. I view Derik Queen as being on that Bailey/Edgecombe tier, and I would be thrilled to be compensated to trade back for him. If other Sixers fans would like to make the case for players like Kon Knueppel, Tre Johnson, etc. etc., I’m all ears. I’m a fan of both players, but I have Queen above them for now.

I really do not view this as a draft that drops off a cliff in the 3-10 range, and I do not see Bailey as the type of prospect that the Sixers would be crazy to pass on. I certainly wouldn’t crush the Sixers for keeping the pick and taking Bailey, but the flaws are so glaring that I’d be happy to trade out of that spot for the right price and let another team take on that risk.

The best case scenario is that the Sixers leave the draft both with the player they consider to be better or equal to the rest of the available talent, and are also better equipped to make a real run at the East next season – which I think they can accomplish by trading back.

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Mike O’Connor is the best O’Connor in basketball writing. Previously of The Athletic, you can find Mike on Twitter @MOConnor_NBA. Mike’s writing is brought to you by Body Bio, supplements based on science, focusing on your gut and brain health.