Can Shake Milton Be Next Year's Devonte' Graham?
Can Shake Milton Be Next Year's Devonte' Graham?
How much better can Shake Milton get?
Mike O’Connor is the best O’Connor in basketball writing. Previously of The Athletic, you can find Mike on Twitter @MOConnor_NBA.
Devonte’ Graham’s improvement during his sophomore season was nothing short of incredible. Not just how much he improved, but how he improved. Graham had always been a strong shooter, but he never led one to believe that he could be anything resembling a Steph Curry/Damian Lillard/Trae Young level assassin that commands attention as soon as he crosses half court.
And last year, Graham simply decided, screw it, I’m going to shoot with a light as green as the Currys and Lillards of the world -- something that most good shooters never have the audacity to even try. This past season, Graham attempted a remarkable 13.3 3s per 100 possessions (up from 8.7 the season prior), and finished second in the league behind James Harden in shots attempted from outside of 25 feet.
And guess what? It worked. Graham shot 37.3 percent from deep and tortured drop pick and roll coverages routinely. He still struggled inside the arc (he shot just 39.7 percent from 2-point range overall), but as far as his outside shot, the Lillard impersonation experiment was a success -- he became a player that defenses feared from 28 feet and in, when nobody pinned him as that type of shooter before the season began. His improvement was a major reason that the Hornets surpassed expectations this year.
Naturally, Graham’s success raises the question of whether it’s replicable. Is he an outlier, or could it perhaps be the case that there are other guards walking around in the league with this type of potential lying dormant? At the least, it’s true that very few players even attempt to make the leap that Graham did -- from a role player who is merely a good shooter and takes mostly reasonable shots, to a volume shooting gunner with total freedom to pull from anywhere. And given his success, one wonders if Graham is a one-off, or whether other players will be able to emulate him.
In the search for a player who could potentially follow in Graham’s footsteps, Shake Milton stands out as someone who may have a real chance at doing so. Milton’s success last season came in large part due to his lights out shooting (43 percent on 8.1 3PA per 100 possessions), and he has deep range and clear comfort when pulling off the bounce.
On a per-36 minute basis, Milton attempted 4.2 shots from 25 feet or further this year -- a fairly modest number overall, but still higher than Graham’s 4.1 in 2018-19. With both players, they were somewhat limited by often playing off the ball, and simply not having the leash from the coaching staff to attempt those kinds of shots.
The quick release, deep range, and comfort when pulling off the bounce pops on film for Milton, and leaves one wondering what could happen if he stretched his boundaries even further. He shot just .7 pull-up 3s per game -- again, mostly a product of his role -- and in his limited attempts, he’s shown that he’s capable of pulling quickly while moving downhill, and that he can also find his balance quickly after a stepback to create space.
Bear in mind, also, that Milton handled just 2.3 pick and rolls per game (per Synergy) and played in an offense under Brett Brown that ran the second-fewest pick and rolls in the entire league. With a new offensive system that allows him to run high pick and rolls and gives him the green light to pull up off the bounce, perhaps Milton will have the opportunity to expand his game in a similar way to how Graham did.
There are, of course, some key things that Graham has that Milton lacks. Graham is a more explosive athlete than Milton, which allows him to pull up more abruptly and makes him harder to track when coming around ball screens. He also has a higher shot release which makes his jumper harder to contest -- especially in isolation -- than Milton’s. Between those two things, Milton simply has a harder time creating space and getting his shot off when a defender is glued to him.
Additionally, Graham played on a team devoid of offensive talent that had nothing to lose in giving him the freedom to experiment. Milton likely won’t have the same freedom to do so next season, even despite the Sixers’ lack of perimeter shot creators. Look at the full picture, and you’ll see that it isn’t all that likely that Milton will be joining Graham among the league leaders in 3-point attempts next season.
However, I still believe there’s real value in letting go of the reins a bit and letting Milton pull up off the bounce with plenty of regularity. By now, it should be abundantly clear that Milton is a lights out shooter and that his pull-up game could present real problems for drop coverages. The Sixers should learn from Graham that if a player can pull up from beyond the arc at an efficient level, it’s worth seeing if that efficiency can sustain when scaled up to a higher volume. There’s no guarantee that Milton is able to sustain his efficiency (40.7 percent on pull-up 3s last season), but with how comfortable he’s looked so far, they’d be silly not to try.
Graham might be a total anomaly -- the rare player who had an elite pull-up threat lying dormant. Or, perhaps, his success should signal that when a player shows the potential of having a deadeye pull-up jumper, you tap into it as much as you can until the returns start diminishing. For Shake Milton’s sake, he’s proven enough of a marksman that the Sixers would be silly not to up his pick and roll usage and give him the green light until he proves incapable. With how desperate the Sixers are for shot creation, they have absolutely nothing to lose in exploring it.