Mail-It-In Mailbag: What Are The Preferred Sixers Playoff Opponents?

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Adam Aaronson, whose legal name is Sixers Adam (@SixersAdam on Twitter), covers the Sixers for The Rights To Ricky Sanchez. He has been legally banned from covering the team in person, and when that ban was set to be lifted, Covid-19 struck. He believes cantaloupe is the best food in existence, and is brought to you by the Official Realtor of The Process, Adam Ksebe.

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Man, does it feel good to have actual basketball news to discuss. While uncertainty remains rampant (justifiably so), we are back in the swing of things talking about open roster spots, free agents, media availability and all of the like. 

With a rush of news following a dead period lasting multiple months, it’s time we sort everything out with another mailbag column. Here we go!

From Caitlin Cooper (@C2_Cooper): Preferred playoff opponents, ranked

From Legs (@legsanity): Which seed are you hoping for?

Before I answer, allow me to note that I was struggling to elicit good questions all day, until Legs came in at the buzzer with EIGHT questions. I won’t get to all of them, but I will sprinkle in at least a few when fitting. #ThankYouLegs

So, where do the Sixers stand in the Eastern Conference right now? They’re tied for the fifth seed with the Indiana Pacers. The Sixers and Indiana are two games behind Miami for the fourth seed, and four and a half games behind Boston for the third seed (given there are only eight games remaining for each team, the third seed is almost certainly unattainable for Philly and Indy).

In a vacuum, I would easily rank it in the following order (from most to least preferred): Indiana, Miami, Boston. Boston seems clearly a tick or two ahead of the Heat, who seem similarly superior to Indiana. However, it’s not that simple.

If the Sixers were to face the Pacers in the first round, it would give them the highest possible chance of making the second round (especially given Victor Oladipo’s decision to opt out of playing in Orlando). However, there would be some real ramifications. The Sixers and Pacers are both essentially out of range to get the third seed, which means a hypothetical matchup between the two teams would come in the 4 vs. 5 seed matchup. And that means, if the Sixers were to come out the victors, they would have to face the Milwaukee Bucks in round two.

I remember Christmas Day very well. I know this team is supposed to be “built for the playoffs.” But let’s be honest: this team, that has been stumbling across the finish line since January, stands little chance against the juggernaut Bucks team. 

You can argue that you might as well just face the Bucks in round two if any path to the Finals includes beating them. And while that is fair, I have a strong suspicion that the Sixers would like to avoid losing in the second round again at all costs. And with a team as good as Milwaukee, it makes sense to wait them out as long as you can. You never know when a pivotal injury (or, I guess, positive test) can happen that will change a series. 

So, now to Legs’ question. I think the Sixers should tank for the sixth seed. Even if that means facing the Celtics, who most would agree is the best team they could possibly play in the second round, it seems wise to me to hold off on any matchup with Milwaukee for as long as possible. And this is the only way to do that. 

From Legs: 5th starter? Playoff rotation?

I think I’m in the majority here when I say that I would be starting Shake Milton next to Josh Richardson, Tobias Harris, Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid. Shake’s presence adds spacing, another ball-handling option, and a pick-and-roll partner for Simmons who can help diversify the All-Star’s contributions. But even forgetting all of that, for the last few months of the season, he was just one of the five best players on the team. 

Even if Shake’s comical 45.3 three-point percentage does not quite sustain, he is without question a plus shooter, a plus shooter who can dribble at that. Quite frankly, even if Shake’s performance seemed to be entirely a mirage, the Sixers would need to hope and pray it continued, because I’m not sure if you’ve heard, but they are desperate for ball-handlers who can shoot.

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As for the playoff rotation, there are likely six locks: Milton, Richardson, Harris, Simmons, Embiid, and Al Horford. That leaves four (later in the playoffs, likely three) spots for the following group: Raul Neto, Matisse Thybulle, Furkan Korkmaz, Alec Burks, Glenn Robinson III and Mike Scott.

Pretty tough, isn’t it? I’m going to start by including Thybulle and excluding Scott (sorry, Mike). Brett Brown has spoken at length all year about wanting Thybulle to get high leverage reps, including once the playoffs come around. And in a hypothetical matchup against the Celtics or Heat, they would definitely need his defense on the wing. 

I remain a bit higher on Scott than the many who have lost faith in him, but someone who isn’t particularly mobile, a threat to attack a closeout or beat his man off the dribble is just not the right fit for a playoff given what the top end of this roster needs around it.

Next, I will decide to include Korkmaz. I have some concerns about his defensive viability in the playoffs, but he’s earned at least the chance to show he can stay on the floor. He was one of the team’s best and most consistent offensive performers, whose scoring was often vital during cold spells. 

That leaves one spot for Neto, Robinson III and Burks. I’d say it depends on the matchup for each of those three.

Against Indiana’s guard-heavy roster, I would actually go with Neto, who I remain a fan of and could help keep the pace up when he’s in and stick with guys like Malcolm Brogdon, the Holiday brothers and even our old friend TJ McConnell.

Miami and Boston, though, are more wing-heavy teams. Against the Celtics, I’d play Robinson III. He is the most capable defensively and is a good spot-up three-point shooter. Several of Miami’s wings are not guys who you need to worry about with the ball, though. So against the Heat, I’d play Burks, who adds size and handling without being a total disaster defensively.

This has gotten pretty long, so let’s tackle one more question. I feel obligated to give the mic to Legs once more:

From Legs: Do you expect [Ryan] Broekhoff to contribute at all?

I have a long answer to this question that you will see in a second, but my short answer is this: probably not.

Cut by Dallas midseason, Broekhoff spent four years at Valparaiso and five overseas before playing with the Mavericks for a year and a half. That’s now 11 years of tape and data we have on him, which makes me very confident in saying he is a very good shooter. Broekhoff is well over 40 percent from beyond the arc and 80 percent from the free throw line over his career, which bodes extremely well as far as long-term indications go. 

On Thursday night, I watched every single field goal attempt of Broekhoff’s career (I promise, it wasn’t as bad as it sounds). The first thing that jumped out to me was his lightning quick release point on threes. He can catch and shoot in an instant, which is obviously a valuable quality for a jump-shooter. But the more and more I watched, I found two trends: that while he excels at setting his feet and firing away quickly, he is significantly less successful at actually making shots when doing so. (I know this applies to everyone to some extent, but it was especially noticeable.) Additionally, Broekhoff seemed average at best on contested looks, while knocking down virtually every wide open look. 

In the end, he’s a welcome addition to the roster, as at this stage of the year it is hard to find a very good shooter with wing size. But again, when it comes to whether or not he will be able to help the Sixers, my answer is probably not.