What Does the Latest Joel Embiid News Mean for His and the Sixers' Future?
MOC with more not-so-positive analysis of the Sixers' latest round of not-so-great news.
In the wake of another round of swelling in Joel Embiid’s knee, as well as the news that he and the team are seeking alternative treatment options to alleviate the problem, questions abound in terms of what exactly the news means and how all of this could impact the Sixers’ future.
On a practical level, as disappointing as it is to see news like this, it’s hard to argue that it wasn’t the right choice. So far, Embiid and the team’s supposed strategy to help the health of his knee has been to have him play on it as much as reasonably possible, with the expectation that over time, his knee will acclimate to its new state, and the instances of pain and swelling will become less severe and less common.
Obviously, that has not come to fruition; if anything, Embiid’s knee is appearing to get worse as time goes on. He is clearly moving far worse than he was three months post injury (the Knicks series), six months post injury (the Olympics), and even 11 months post injury (December of this season).
After missing more than four weeks due to knee swelling in January and February, Embiid’s latest return to action has been arguably the worst stretch of his career, with each game being worse than the last. He initially returned on February 4th with a 29-point triple double in a win against the Mavericks, looking perhaps not like his usual self, but certainly like an All-Star level player. In each game since then, Embiid’s production and overall impact have steadily gotten worse, to the point that he was benched for the fourth quarter of a miserable loss to the Nets, after which he reportedly experienced another round of swelling.
Again, just to zoom out, it’s a terrible sign for the “just play through it” strategy that we are this far removed from the injury, and the stretches that Embiid plays are becoming shorter, less frequent, and less effective. No matter what Embiid and the Sixers ultimately decide to do in terms of treatment, it almost has to be a better idea than just continuing this current strategy – and if it isn’t, Embiid and the Sixers would only be back where they are now.
That said, it remains incredibly hard to discern what choices Embiid and the Sixers will have in terms of a treatment plan. Embiid has repeatedly used the word “surgery” both publicly and privately, per Shams, but other plugged-in reporters have shot down that idea. Specifically, Kyle Neubeck of PHLY has reported that the often-speculated meniscus transplant surgery – the procedure that Lonzo Ball had – has not been presented to Embiid as an option.
Neubeck did mention an osteotomy procedure, in which doctors cut and reshape your bones to take pressure off of damaged joints, but this would be somewhat of an experimental procedure, and it’s hard to imagine that this surgery would be their first option right now. From what I can tell in my internet research, that would likely be a year-long recovery process if Embiid were to elect for that option.
If I had to guess – and this is only a guess – they will start by trying one of the less-invasive, less-risky treatments, like the low-dose radiation treatment that both Neubeck and Marcus Hayes of the Inquirer mentioned. I have to imagine that one of those types of treatments would be the first option here, but again, I’m purely speculating.
If they do try one of those more minor procedures, and Embiid is unable to get on the court by the start of next season, that’s when I imagine we would hear more about some of the more experimental procedures – which, again, would be likely to knock him out for an entire year.
If this all sounds incredibly bleak to you, such is life for the 2025 Sixers. The reality is that Embiid has a chronic condition for which there is no obvious cure. The path endorsed by the prevailing wisdom on this subject is decidedly not helping, and so, Embiid and the team now have to look into other options. I don’t blame them for trying the “play through it” plan given that it was the medical consensus, but we have simply reached the point where it is running out of hope.
Obviously, I wish Joel the very best, but on a practical level it’s becoming very, very hard to believe that he will ever play basketball at a high level for extended stretches ever again. Regardless of which path they choose – a minor procedure, a major experimental procedure, no procedure at all – you’d be hard-pressed to convince me that someone with his history and his post-injury track record can bounce back and become anything resembling the guy that he was before this injury. You could probably count on one hand the number of star players whose career was at one point derailed for more than a year by chronic knee injuries, and later bounced back to become something resembling what they once were.
And so, while I am not yet willing to say that the Sixers are doomed to some miserable future for years to come, I am certainly ready to accept that the era of guaranteed 50-win seasons and fringe title contention that Joel Embiid brought for more than half a decade are over. Even if he remains on the team, we are now exiting “the Embiid era.”
A lot of people will be yelling that the Sixers should salary dump Embiid, but I struggle to see how that’s in their best interest. It would likely take at least two unprotected first round picks to get off of that contract, and given that the team would probably be entering something resembling a rebuild, giving away draft picks could delay that process by multiple years. As much as it sucks, Embiid is likely to become Ryan Howard 2.0, existing in the background while saddling the Sixers with an enormous financial burden that prevents them from doing many things in terms of roster overhaul.
Of course, there’s still a wide range of outcomes for the Sixers moving forward. They could win the draft lottery and climb right back into relevancy with Maxey, McCain, and Cooper Flagg. Or, they could lose their pick, be stuck in the same territory next season, and have to go through another ~34 win season just to get something like the 8th pick in the draft. At that point, they’d be staring down the barrel at a long sentence in purgatory – keep in mind that their 2027 pick goes to Brooklyn if it lands outside of the top-8 thanks to the James Harden trade. So, there is a real chance that they give up a top-10 pick to OKC either this year or next year (if they keep their pick this year, next year’s pick will be owed to OKC with a top-4 protection), as well as a late lottery pick to Brooklyn in 2027. That would mean getting only one draft pick over the course of three pretty terrible seasons – a true nightmare scenario.
They could, of course, decide to go Full Process at any given point, and trade Maxey and whoever else in order to simply bottom out for a few years. But with a new arena on the horizon – plus the now inarguably mixed results of the last time they bottomed out – I think the more likely outcome is that they keep some of the current guys and try to remain somewhat competitive in the next couple years.
Similar to Embiid, there is a chance that Paul George’s continually declining play means that he’s more likely than not to remain here long term. I speculated before the trade deadline that plenty of teams would still have interest in trading for him, but after this latest stretch of awful play – plus him being another year older when next season rolls around – might mean that whatever suitors existed at the deadline are no longer lining up for him this summer. Perhaps some team desperate for relevance decides to give up a pick for him – someone like Charlotte or Sacramento – but I don’t imagine that the line will be out the door for him. And since, again, it doesn’t make sense for the Sixers to go around doing salary dumps, it’s possible PG will be here for the next few years as a $50 million 3-and-D guy who plays 50 games per year.
Regardless of how good the Sixers are for the next few seasons, it’s just incredibly sad to see Joel Embiid’s career take this turn. He was, at his peak, undeniably the best player I have ever seen play for the Sixers. He embraced the city and tried to connect with the fanbase in ways that very few players have done. He has many flaws, and I’ve been critical of him on many occasions, but the truth is Embiid did a lot for basketball in this city; he made the Sixers relevant again, and I and many others owe our careers in this industry in part to that very fact.
It’s not over till it’s over, and there’s always the chance of a miraculous healing. But it looks for now as if Embiid’s career is not going to have the happy ending that we always hoped for, and that’s really heartbreaking for those of us who have been so invested in every chapter of his story.
Mike O’Connor is the best O’Connor in basketball writing. Previously of The Athletic, you can find Mike on Twitter @MOConnor_NBA. Mike’s writing is brought to you by Body Bio, supplements based on science, focusing on your gut and brain health.
Well that was depressing
Great piece Mike. I've been following this team since the Syracuse days, and Embiid is the best player they've had since Wilt. (Julius maybe, but I honestly think Embiid is more skilled.) Also, he's a joy to watch, or was. Great athlete, smart, graceful, and powerful. So I appreciate your comments at the end.
One great player I can think of who came back from a serious knee injury to play at a high level is Elgin Baylor. He averaged 27/13 the following year and made 4 more All-Star teams.