How Drafting VJ Edgecombe Changes the Sixers' Short- and Long-Term Future
MOC on What It All Means after the Sixers made and kept the pick.
Unless the Sixers had landed the No. 1 pick in the draft lottery and drafted Cooper Flagg, there was never going to be an outcome from draft night that left Sixers fans with a clear vision of what exactly the short and long term future would entail.
The decision to draft Baylor guard VJ Edgecombe was, in my opinion, the right one – I ended up having VJ as the best prospect available at No. 3, just narrowly ahead of Kon Knueppel – but it certainly leaves a lot of questions as to what the Sixers will do both in the short and long term. They have a suddenly crowded back court rotation with minimal front court depth, and it’s completely unclear if they will have the health and depth to pursue a deep playoff run, or if this year will be another step in a short rebuild.
Let’s get into some of the key takeaways from the night.
Drafting Edgecombe helps further establish an identity as a franchise
Right after the pick came in, one of the main things I expressed excitement about on Twitter was the fact that Edgecombe is, by all accounts, an awesome human being with a terrific work ethic. I was met with some pushback by fans who thought I was making too big of a deal out of it, prioritizing character over whether he is truly a franchise-altering talent.
Let’s just be clear about a few things: 1) There was no potential franchise-altering talent available at No. 3 that didn’t carry massive risk. 2) Taking the guy with an amazing work ethic and a great set of tools is the best possible recipe for someone reaching that level. 3) Even if he doesn’t hit his upside and become the franchise cornerstone that true VJ optimists believe he can be, just having a high-character, high-motor, starter-level player is a good outcome from this pick.
I’m not quite willing to put my reputation on the line to predict that he’s going to be any one of these guys, but most players that go from being as raw as VJ is to being an All-Star level shot creator are guys that are outliers in terms of character and work ethic – Victor Oladipo, Jrue Holiday, Jaylen Brown, etc. Again, most players who can’t self-create in college remain unable to self-create in the NBA, so I’m not predicting that VJ will reach those heights. But the few players who make mega leaps do it because they have the intangibles and natural gifts that VJ has.
I just can’t stress this enough: I am thrilled that the Sixers appear to be moving toward a policy of No More Losers. I’ve been around a long time now. I’ve watched Michael Carter-Williams, who lacked self-awareness and never improved at the things he needed to. I’ve invested hope into Nerlens Noel, who was late to everything, had terrible work habits, pushed off surgeries until the season began, and, again, had no self-awareness. I was here when Jahlil Okafor fought fans and got in multiple other forms of legal trouble as he never improved at a single thing throughout his time in the league. I’ve seen Markelle Fultz, Ben Simmons and James Harden all fall short of their potential here for things that were, to varying degrees of forgivability, the result of who they are as people. Hell, even Joel Embiid has disappointed us with his on-court demeanor and off-court habits, albeit obviously to a much lesser extent than the players I mentioned here.
Character matters. Investing major resources into talented losers has mostly been an utter disaster for this franchise – not to mention a miserable experience for us as fans. I want people who care. If you’re not a maniacal worker, an unselfish teammate, and generally pleasant to be around, I do not want you on the Philadelphia 76ers currently. Thankfully, Edgecombe appears to be the epitome of all those things.
How Edgecombe will help next year’s team
Aside from health, one of the biggest reasons that the Sixers ranked 26th in defense last year was that the roster was a poor fit for Nick Nurse’s preferred style of play. Nurse employs a physically and mentally demanding style of defense, and the Sixers’ collection of non-athletes and/or low-IQ defenders made for a disastrous match for that style.
Edgecombe, even in year one, will help that considerably. The single best area of his game right now is off-ball defense. He is very high-IQ and freakishly athletic, which allows him to fly around the floor cleaning up others’ mistakes. He is the type of player who will make the team more connected just with his presence. Right now, he and Paul George are the only players on the roster who have the IQ and the mindset to be high-level off-ball playmakers on that end of the floor. When healthy, the unit of Maxey-Grimes-Edgecombe-George-Embiid should be quite good defensively.
On the offensive end, don’t expect VJ to transform much of what the Sixers do in year one. He’s still raw, and most of his offense should come from spot-up 3s, straight line drives and hustle plays. Still, the raw pop and athleticism he brings will be a welcomed addition to what was mostly a slow, ground-bound group last season. In the event that he gets to share the floor with a healthy version of the Sixers’ stars, his ability to use his athletic traits to find cracks in the defense and make splash plays will bring a welcomed change to the Sixers’ offense.
Drafting Edgecombe does not mean that they have to get rid of Grimes
There’s been a lot of discussion as to what the decision to draft Edgecombe means for the future of Quentin Grimes, and I don’t think that’s a crazy thing to wonder about. In year one, however, it’s a total non-issue – even if Grimes and Edgecombe prove completely unable to share the floor together (which is not likely), Edgecombe will still see 15-20 minutes per game on most nights, which is plenty for a rookie as raw as he is. Jaylen Brown played 17 minutes per night as a rookie.
In the long term, I do think that the Edgecombe-Grimes pairing could survive major minutes next to either Maxey or McCain. We just witnessed an NBA Finals matchup where both teams played multiple normal-sized guards together for extended stretches. The reason that the Nembhard/Nesmith combo and the Dort/Caruso combo could survive together is because they were all tenacious, versatile defenders who can guard multiple positions. I’d expect the same to eventually be true of Grimes and Edgecombe.
According to Basketball-Reference, Grimes has played 29 percent of his career minutes at small forward. Still, if that combination does prove to be too small, and there simply aren’t enough minutes to go around between the four guards, then yes, trades will have to be made. Hell, if the Sixers could find a good sign and trade partner that brings them back a power forward for Grimes, I’d be all ears. But for now, this one is just not really a problem. There are plenty of minutes to go around, considering how young Edgecombe and McCain are – especially assuming that the Grimes/Edgecombe duo can survive defensively.
Having two really good shooting guards is not the problem. Having literally zero power forwards is the Sixers’ real problem. Which brings us to…
The best way to address the Sixers’ power forward crisis
If we’re all in agreement that the Sixers now have a pretty awesome backcourt rotation, as well as max contract players at small forward and center, it becomes pretty easy to dream big about this roster if they manage to get healthy and just add a starting-caliber power forward.
Of course, adding a player of that caliber – I’m thinking of a P.J. Washington, Herb Jones, Tari Eason type – would require trading away future assets, which might be a difficult sell when we have no idea if Joel Embiid will be physically able to play basketball once the season starts. I wouldn’t crush the Sixers for shelling out future assets this summer for one of those types of players, especially considering that 1) the East is wide open, 2) there’s no point in bottoming out again this year given that they likely will lose their draft pick to OKC, 3) going into the year with Kelly Oubre still on the team would create a rather uncomfortable log jam until a trade is made.
However, I could also see the logic in just trying to patch that spot together with resources on the margin before the season starts, and waiting to decide on making an all-in move until we know more about Embiid’s health. In that case, I think the best thing to do would be to draft that archetype with the 35th pick, and sign two or three minimum salary players this summer and hope that one of them pops. None of those options are going to be especially good – I’m talking about your Marvin Bagleys of the world – but just having someone who is big, tall, and stinks would be better than, say, re-signing Kyle Lowry, who is small, short, and stinks.
Either way, I’m not terribly concerned about this in the long run. I think the organization knows that it’s a huge issue, and they have plenty of ammo to figure it out, even if that means waiting until the season starts. Re-signing Guerschon Yabusele would obviously go a long way towards helping this, but it doesn’t seem super likely that they’ll be able to do that. Still, one way or another, if Embiid shows any signs of life between now and the trade deadline, I think there will be a starting-caliber power forward on this roster at some point.
Mike O’Connor is the best O’Connor in basketball writing. Previously of The Athletic, you can find Mike on Twitter @MOConnor_NBA. Mike’s writing is brought to you by Body Bio, supplements based on science, focusing on your gut and brain health.