Five Correct Predictions For The Sixers Season

They may not be outrageous, but they’re all right.

[photo: @Sixers]

Andrew Unterberger is a famous writer who invented the nickname 'Sauce Castillo' and is now writing for The Rights To Ricky Sanchez, as part of the 'If Not, Pick Will Convey As Two Second-Rounders' section of the site. You can follow Andrew on Twitter @AUGetoffmygold and can also read him at Billboard. 

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This might sound ungrateful to even ask, but can we please get another week or two of this preseason? Games that actually “count” -- as if this isn’t all just, y’know, sports -- are great and all, but I gotta tell you, this breezing through low-stakes, subpar competition with our third-stringers up comfortably while taking the final bow is really doing wonders for my Process Truster life expectancy. There are so many crappy teams in the East this year, we could probably go till Thanksgiving cycling through all of them before anyone noticed or complained. 

But fine, we have to actually play the Celtics next Wednesday for real for real. That won’t be without its charms either, and I predict there’ll be other joys to be had in watching a legitimately championship-contending squad go through the motions of a largely unchallenging regular season. That’s not a particularly bold prediction, though -- so as I did last year, with a 100% strike rate don’t bother checking the math on that just trust me I did awesome, let’s get through five that are a little bit spicier. 

They might not be quite bold enough for “bold” this year -- and that term’s getting played anyway -- so let’s call ‘em italicized instead. They won’t catch your eye from across the room, but they’ll show intent and emphasis, dammit.

Nobody wins the Raul Neto vs. Trey Burke battle.

I wasn’t totally convinced about either of these guys was the answer to our backup point / combo guard battle when we signed them, and through the preseason so far neither has particularly registered as particularly impressive. Their numbers haven’t been terrible, but watching them shuttle between minutes at the point has light Kendall Marshall vs. Isaiah Canaan vibes so far, where whichever uninspiring option seems most appealing as the long-term solution is the one you saw in action less recently. 

Both will have good games, good moments, maybe even a good week or two, but nothing consistent enough to alleviate this being the sore spot in the Sixers rotation all year. By the postseason, I’d bet Brett mostly sticks with Josh Richardson as the informal backup point, with some occasional Shake Milton-Ben Simmons tethering. Or maybe we trade for Fred Van Vleet and he goes bonkers in the playoffs again -- hopefully Brett and Elton are scouting if he’s planning on having another kid for around that time of the year. Speaking of…

The Sixers trade Zhaire for a shooter at the deadline. 

No joy in Delco for this one, but the signs are not looking super-encouraging right now for Zhaire Smith ending up a meaningful member of this Sixers team this season. He’s been buried in the preseason rotation, solar-eclipsed by Matisse Thybulle on depth chart, and… well, it’s just sorta hard to see the Sixers waiting around for this odd-duck super-talent to round into NBA form while they chase a championship the next two years. Nothing we’ve seen strategy-wise from Elton, Brett & Co. suggest that they can prioritize winning later over winning now like that… well, not since we traded for Zhaire the first time. 

It’s hard to imagine the deadline-available shooter who could be worth the expenditure of a player we’ve invested so much in -- emotion, assets, allergy research -- as Zhaire. But as we get to February and the Sixers are still struggling through one too many nights going 6-25 from deep, suddenly it might not seem so beyond the pale to trade a potential blue-chipper like Smith for short-term play like (as the Athletic brain trust suggests) Bryn Forbes, E’Twuan Moore, or indeed, Fred Van Vleet. Maybe if we’re lucky, we can get away with sacrificing Jonah Bolden to the trade deadline gods instead, but Zhaire is probably our most liquid asset at the moment, and I’d be a little surprised if Elton was able to resist the urge to cash him in.

Joel Embiid plays at an MVP-caliber level… but doesn’t play nearly enough games to get serious consideration for the award.

Happy to see that Embiid is becoming a trendy preseason MVP pick -- he deserves the narrative boost, and it should make the season more fun to have him asked about it every time he goes on a two-week tear, which should be a lot of times. Unfortunately, I don’t think it’ll be quite enough times to actually make him a true award contender. Maybe one year JoJo actually plays 70+ in a season, but this doesn’t feel like it to me. He didn’t have a totally healthy offseason after limping to the finish line last season, and no matter what Brett says, he still doesn’t quite seem in peak physical shape, if there’s even a ceiling for him still to get to there. 

Plus, this season seems custom-designed to let Embiid get as many rest games as his heart, legs, eye sockets or thoracic outlet might require. Not only can the team survive and thrive with Al Horford as the starting center, Kyle O’Quinn seems to be slipping into Sixersdom like Fisher Stevens in Succession; it’s kinda hard to believe he wasn’t just there all along. Embiid should miss some games that he actually should miss, but then there’ll be the coin-flip ones where everyone (except maybe Embiid) just says better safe than sorry. If he plays more than 60 games, I’d be surprised -- bad news for the trophy case, but hopefully good news for the team’s chances of playing at full postseason strength.

I miss Jimmy Butler and J.J. Redick a lot. 

OK, I’m not actually counting this one as an italicized prediction, but I did want to get this out there on the record before the books are officially closed on these two dudes as Sixers and we preemptively get our chests puffed for the inevitable Should We Boo When They Come Back? debates. Yes these guys were often frustrating on and off the court, yes the team is arguably better now without them, and yes we will certainly relish beating them on their new teams. But I do must say, on the whole I really enjoyed both of them as Sixers and will mostly miss what they brought to the team -- especially because no one else seems likely to really bring their specific thing(s) in their absence. 

I won’t belabor the point about why these dudes were great Sixers and why we should only celebrate their time here -- it’d feel trite and self-righteous and Spike would never let me get away with it anyway. They’ll be fun Process Villains anyway, and if you want to jeer ‘em when they show up again, go nuts; their reactions to such a reception are guaranteed to be fun, at the least. But it won’t stop me from having largely fond remembrances of their respective times here, and getting a little wistful at every (admittedly hilarious) Jimmy Butler Early Retirement and J.J. Redick Not Not on Social Media joke. 

So yeah, one final farewell and thanks for the memories, dudes. See you in the Process Hall of Fame sometime in 2074, 40 years after Joel Embiid retires, 30 years after Sam Hinkie writes his The Day The Process Died tell-all and 10 years after we induct Elliott Williams and The Time Mike Ate a Cashew or Whatever.

Tobias Harris replaces Ben Simmons as the team scapegoat. 

I know, I know, disgustingly on brand. But man, I don’t know how you can feel super-comfortable with Tobias as the primary perimeter scoring option on this team right now. You can’t put too much stock into four preseason games -- except we’re Sixers fans, of course we can -- but between the clanked jumpers and spill-off-the-rim layups, he just doesn’t seem to put the ball in the basket as often as he should. It’s a trend that definitely goes back to last year’s playoffs and through the end of the regular season. Hypocritical to say this about a guy I briefly considered the greatest shot-maker I could remember seeing on the Sixers, sure, but I do feel it more than a little worrisome that we’ve barely seen that guy since that tweet. 

Meanwhile, I think maybe Ben Simmons gets it a little easier from fans this season. Not because of the jumper, which he’s basically admitting at this point simply isn’t going to be materially different this season -- I just think he’s going to be awesome enough at everything else, and the team is going to be so well-suited for his style and strengths this year, that it’s not going to seem quite so much like everything hinges on his shooting. And while Tobias has a bunch of moments like the big open triple miss in Game Four of the Raptors series last year, and gets paid $36 million a year in average value for the privilege, I feel like it’s gonna be his turn to shoulder some of the reflexive fan distaste. 

Maybe not. Maybe Simmons’ jumper is such a lightning rod at this point that no other player will seem as controversial until he gets it sorted. But I feel there’s only so long Simmons can provide such superior on-court value to Harris at such a significantly lesser dollar amount before the balances of that pressure tilt a little, especially if the latter can’t come through in the hero-ball moments. A couple big games (or at least big shots for him early in the season) would go a long, long way. But if not, the conversation around every Sixers loss might start to lean more towards Tobias’ 6-17 FG line than Ben’s 0-0 3PT night.  

The Sixers lose to the Clippers and Kawhi again in the Finals.

Honestly I have no idea what the West team in this will be -- part of me really wants to say Golden State, just out of a combination of respect and desire for quality Kevin Durant Twitter content, but there are five or six teams it probably could be. Still, feels cowardly not to pick one, and the Clippers do feel a little like the ‘08 Celtics, where typical first-year concerns are just kinda outweighed by the sheer level of talent and fit. An injury kills ‘em, but damn I love that starting five + Sweet Lou, and having our boy Landry in the finals to really stick it in our eye feels like proper punishment for our shortcut sins of the past few years. 

But yeah, more importantly, I think the Sixers will get there. No one else in the East really scares me, and I just love the number of different looks this team can provide this year, with an entire season to work out maximizing the potential of all of ‘em. Milwaukee will be good, and I expect Indiana and Toronto will be more of a factor than some people seem to realize, but the more I think about it, the more it seems like it’ll be an upset if the Sixers don’t walk to the finals in the East. They’ve got the players and the juice, they’ve had the required heartbreak of getting halfway there, and they don’t have anyone more proven or more experienced standing in their way. 

Still, I don’t think we’ll take the whole thing this year. The lack of perimeter creation and shooting will come home to roost at the highest level, and while I don’t think we’re quite vulnerable enough to be exposed by anyone in the East, get one of the best in the West out there to force us to play left-handed (or right-handed, depending on what hand we’re supposed to not be shooting with these days) and I think we might be in some trouble. If Embiid’s dominant enough it might not matter, but can we get him to a finals series still playing at that level? Again, maybe some year, but I don’t think it’s that year yet. Getting that much closer still sounds pretty good to me.

And what the hell, let’s do a quick bonus one. 

Brett Brown wins Coach of the Year. 

Why not? He’s never seriously been in the conversation, but he’s been around for long enough to get a Best Coach to Never Win One-type narrative going once the chatter begins this year. The Sixers should be awesome in the regular season, they should have the depth (or at least the adaptability) to survive a (non-tragic, non-season-ending) injury or two, and they should be dominant defensively. Once they secure the top seed in the East and Zainab dedicates herself full-time to the promotional campaign, it should be a wrap.