Sixers Adam's Guide To Picking The Draft Kings Ricky Orlando Hostage Pool
Have Adam help you with your picks.
Adam Aaronson, whose legal name is Sixers Adam (@SixersAdam on Twitter), covers the Sixers for The Rights To Ricky Sanchez. He has been legally banned from covering the team in person, and when that ban was set to be lifted, Covid-19 struck. He believes cantaloupe is the best food in existence, and is brought to you by the Official Realtor of The Process, Adam Ksebe.
As you may have seen, DraftKings has put together a pool for predictions among Ricky listeners on a bunch of different Sixers’ performances in Orlando.
ENTER: THE DRAFT KINGS RICKY ORLANDO HOSTAGE POOL FOR FREE ($500 PRIZE)
For some reason, no matter how many times I try to sign up for DraftKings to enter the contest, they tell me I’m “ineligible in the state of New Jersey.” Whatever that means. [we say Pennsylvania only every ad you idiot! - ed.]
Since I can’t join the competition, I’ll make my picks here. For each pick, I’ll give a rating of how confident I am on a scale of 1 (least confident) to 10 (most confident). Here’s what my picks would be had I been born three years earlier:
Total Ben Simmons made three pointers: Over/Under 2.5
My pick: Under
Confidence: 10/10
Looks like we’re starting off with a total gimme. Simmons has only attempted four threes in the half-court in his entire career, only two of them being this season. I think it’s close to impossible that he takes -- let alone makes -- any in the playoffs. If true, it would mean he has to make three shots from beyond the arc in just eight regular season games in order for the over to hit.
Total games started by Al Horford: Over/Under 4.5
My pick: Over
Confidence: 7/10
Here’s my thinking: if the Sixers outperform the undermanned Indiana Pacers in the eight seeding games, they will be in the 4 vs. 5 matchup. If they were to win that series, they’d face the Milwaukee Bucks in the second round. If there is ever an appropriate time to insert Horford back into the starting lineup, it would be then. Even if it takes a game or two against the Bucks to get him in there, I still like my chances here a decent bit: Embiid is bound to sit at least once or twice, and Horford would be his obvious replacement. Simmons, fresh off a back injury, could as well. The path to Al hitting the over is somewhat unclear, but I think enough of them exist that I feel reasonably comfortable taking it.
ENTER: THE DRAFT KINGS RICKY ORLANDO HOSTAGE POOL FOR FREE ($500 PRIZE)
Total minutes played by Marial Shayok: Over/Under 12.5
My pick: Under
Confidence: 7/10
Shayok played 10 minutes in the regular season, only appearing in two games. It is absolutely possible that he hits the over in garbage time minutes, but I’m choosing to guess he won’t. I would take the over if he had even a semblance of a path to actual minutes at any point, but he just doesn’t. If anyone on the team was impacted by the addition of Ryan Broekhoff, it’s Shayok, who will be supplanted in the depth chart by a superior shooter and more competent NBA player. If the Sixers want to add shooting at the expense of defense and athleticism, they’d give minutes to Broekhoff before Shayok.
Total games played by Joel Embiid: Over/Under 20.5
My pick: Under
Confidence: 8.5/10
I feel bad about how good I feel on this one. Let’s say Joel plays seven of the eight seeding games (it seems like a given that he will sit for one half of the back-to-back at the end of the season). That means he needs to play 14 games to hit the over. Translation: either two seven-game series, or a Conference Finals appearance. While the latter is certainly possible, it’s far from something I would consider likely at this point.
Shake Milton three-point percentage: Over/Under 38.8 percent
My pick: Under
Confidence: 6/10
Don’t confuse this selection with complete pessimism about Shake. But here’s one way to look at it: if you remove just Shake’s best stretch of five games, his three point percentage falls to 34.2 percent. That isn’t to suggest those games specifically were flukes, but it’s to point out just how small of a sample size we have here, where just five games make a difference of over 11 percentage points. The tiny sample size on top of the fact that Shake will be facing more and more intense competition as the season and playoffs go on makes me skeptical enough to take the under.
ENTER: THE DRAFT KINGS RICKY ORLANDO HOSTAGE POOL FOR FREE ($500 PRIZE)
Who will have the higher three-point percentage: Robert Covington or Matisse Thybulle?
My pick: Covington
Confidence: 7/10
Before being sidelined for a few weeks with an injury, Thybulle was stunningly good from beyond the arc -- over 46 percent -- in a stretch that just did not make sense. Thybulle came out of college as an unrefined at best shooter without indicators that he had the shooting upside of anything better than average.
Since returning from that injury, he has made… 25.3 percent of his threes. I’m not saying he is that bad of a shooter in the grand scheme of things, but he certainly is not someone who can be anywhere near 40 percent in general.
Covington is firmly set in the 35-37 percent range, and I have much more trust in his long-term track record as a shooter, even if he is going to be taking not just more threes but more difficult threes. I also don’t see Covington’s offense dropping off in the playoffs like one would expect Thybulle’s to. Thybulle’s value on offense comes from wide open spot up threes. Those are much tougher to find in the playoffs. Covington, meanwhile, makes his money on deep, often heavily contested threes. I think he’s the safer play, especially when being alongside two elite perimeter creators in James Harden and Russell Westbrook who draw so much attention from opposing defenses.
Total games where Tobias Harris has more shot attempts than points: Over/Under 4.5
My pick: Over
Confidence: 2/10
By my count, Harris did this 15 times in 65 games, roughly a 23 percent clip. That rate would have him close to two in the regular season. If we say he will have two of such games before the playoffs, he would require three in the postseason, which is when he’d be more likely to do so given the increased level competition. To be honest, this feels like the toughest one so far. I’m going to let the pessimist in me reign and pick the over, but it’s truly a toss-up to me.
ENTER: THE DRAFT KINGS RICKY ORLANDO HOSTAGE POOL FOR FREE ($500 PRIZE)
Josh Richardson assists per game: Over/Under 3.1
My pick: Under
Confidence: 9/10
On one hand, Richardson will play more as the stakes get higher, so his season average of 3.1 assists per game should theoretically go up. But for most of the season, Richardson was playing as the secondary ball-handler, and even had a stretch as the backup point guard. Not only has his amount of on-ball reps continued to decline, but it should even more with the emergence of Milton as a ball-handler. This is my favorite pick of the bunch.
Joel Embiid three pointers made per game: Over/Under 1.5
My pick: Under
Confidence: 8/10
When I first saw this, it seemed like a tough one. But it turns out to be fairly cut-and-dry. Embiid has never averaged 1.5 threes made per game in a regular season or postseason. Could he get hot from deep? Sure, he is certainly capable of it. But without plus odds, I’m not counting on his shooting getting abnormally better.