Sixers Adam's One-Month-Away Trade Deadline Primer
Let’s find out who’s untouchable and who’s touchable.
![[photo: @Sixers]](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4ad83395-7873-4263-ad46-88a19f41aa2a_1000x499.jpeg "[photo: @Sixers]")
Adam Aaronson, whose legal name is Sixers Adam (@SixersAdam on Twitter), covers the Sixers for The Rights To Ricky Sanchez. He has been legally banned from covering the team in person, but that ban will be lifted in March of 2020. He is brought to you by the Official Realtor of The Process, Adam Ksebe.
We are officially less than a month away from the Trade Deadline, which means the Twitter timeline has too many trade machine ideas.
What it also means is that the Sixers have a month to turn this roster -- that has to this point disappointed -- into one they can reasonably feel has a real chance of being a championship-caliber team. Whether that requires one or two supplemental bench pieces to help unlock the existing potential of this group, a big swing or somewhere in between, Elton Brand and co. are now in a spot where the pressure is on. They can’t just identify the right targets, but also make the proper decisions when it comes to the value of those targets. There is a good argument to be made that Tobias Harris was the most sensible trade target for the Sixers last winter, but that is tarnished by the massive price the Sixers paid for him.
I’ll be putting out many Trade Deadline-centric pieces here at the Ricky as we get closer to February 6. It makes sense to start with this question: what can the Sixers trade?
Joel Embiid, Ben Simmons
Trade Status: completely untouchable
I don’t think it’s necessary to waste time with an explanation here. Neither of these guys are getting traded this season.
Tobias Harris, Al Horford, Norvel Pelle, Marial Shayok
Trade Status: not untouchable, but almost definitely not going anywhere
The simple truth here is that it can be really hard to trade players this early into a major contract. I can only remember one recent instance -- the Clippers shipping Blake Griffin to Detroit -- where a player signed a hefty deal in the summer and was dealt in the first year of it.
While Horford has been the subject of much frustration recently as Tobias has settled into his role, this applies to Harris to a greater extent. No team is trading for a player in the first year of a five-year deal at nearly max money, unless that player is a superstar. Horford has one less year on his deal (also, the fourth year is only partially guaranteed), and makes a significantly smaller amount than Harris. So if one of these two gets moved -- which I doubt, for the record -- I would be shocked if it were Tobias and not Al.
As for Pelle and Shayok, there is only one trade I can ever recall involving two-way players. And if (when?) Pelle’s deal is converted to an NBA contract by February, which is a legitimate possibility, there would be a restriction on how long the Sixers have to wait before dealing him. Nobody wants to read my regurgitation of the Collective Bargaining Agreement, but either two-way player being traded is basically impossible. Trust me.
Josh Richardson, Matisse Thybulle
Trade Status: untouchable… probably
I have trouble imagining any scenario in which Richardson is moved. As a high-quality two-way player with this and next season left on an affordable contract, it would seem counter-productive to shop him. If they could get a starting-caliber playmaking guard with multiple years left on his contract at a cost-effective number, trading Richardson could make sense. But I’m not sure that player exists on the trade market right now.
It’s easy to assume that Thybulle is completely untouchable. He fits alongside the team’s best players, is in the first season of an inexpensive four-year contract, and is this team’s most promising prospect remaining.
But let’s say the Sixers think they are one big trade away -- and for the sake of the hypothetical, that they view Jrue Holiday as the missing piece. What happens if they call New Orleans, offer Al Horford, Zhaire Smith and a future first-round pick for Holiday, and the Pelicans say they need Thybulle instead of Smith?
Every team will ask about Matisse knowing the Sixers are buyers, but the Sixers won’t entertain dealing him for any rentals (as they shouldn’t). But like with Landry Shamet, I don’t think it’s impossible that he could be on the table for at least a few players.
James Ennis III
Trade Status: untouchable… if he wants to be
When Ennis re-upped with the Sixers in the summer on a one-year deal worth less than his expected market value, it was likely a disappointment -- but some good came of it for him. Because he signed a one-year contract as a non-bird free agent, Ennis has a no-trade clause. I’m not sure why the Sixers would look to move him in the first place, but it’s worth noting that Ennis does have that no-trade clause at his disposal, with little reason to consider waiving it.
Zhaire Smith, Mike Scott, Furkan Korkmaz
Trade Status: can be traded, but be careful
Smith and Scott are neck and neck in the “which Sixer can be added to the most trade machine ideas?” race. And it’s not surprising: given the lack of medium-sized salaries on this roster, they have the two most easily movable contracts (Scott at $4.7M, Smith at $3.5M). If the Sixers combine Scott and Smith with one of their minimum contracts (Neto, Burke, Korkmaz, or O’Quinn), they could absorb up to $11.9M in incoming salary. That puts them in range for players like Robert Covington ($11.3M).
I cautioned in my December check-in last week why the Sixers should think hard before moving any of these three, so I’ll keep it short here: I know it’s easy to give up on Smith because of his slow developmental arc, but his tools are tantalizing enough for the patience to be warranted. Scott’s inconsistency is frustrating, but his mentality as a spot-up shooter is necessary on this roster. Korkmaz may not be able to hold up defensively in the playoffs yet, but is a good shooter with a non-guaranteed minimum salary for 2020-2021. So, while imperfect, all three of these guys are legitimate assets to both the Sixers and other teams.
Shake Milton, Jonah Bolden
Trade Status: minor pieces
These two are purely prospects, clearly unable to contribute to an NBA team in any meaningful way in 2019-20. While that renders them useless to some of the league, teams in the bottom echelon of the league will have varying levels of interest -- but not high. Bolden’s intrigue stems from his size, natural athleticism and improving jumper. Milton’s comes from his height, length and ball-handling potential. But ultimately, Jonah is a 24-year old who hasn’t sniffed noteworthy NBA minutes all season. Shake is a 23-year old with two more fully guaranteed years left on his contract after this one and without any discernible evidence of being an NBA player. We’ve all imagined these guys filling roles on championship teams, but to this point they have been zeroes. The rest of the NBA knows that.
Raul Neto, Trey Burke, Kyle O’Quinn
Trade Status: only have value as salary filler
If you’re unfamiliar, salary filler is a term for players who are involved in a trade simply to make the financial terms legal on both sides (for example: Jerryd Bayless and his $9M salary being included in the Jimmy Butler trade). And none of these guys will have value to other teams in a trade other than making the money work.
Draft Picks
Because this roster is top-heavy, the Sixers will need to bolster their offers with draft compensation. But after going all-in last year, specifically with the Tobias Harris trade, they limited themselves a bit in how they can operate with draft picks (at least in the first round). Here’s an outlook on all of the draft picks they do and don’t have, as well as the restrictions they face:
The Sixers do not own their 2020 first-round pick, after trading it to the Clippers in the Tobias Harris trade. For bookkeeping’s sake, the pick now belongs to Brooklyn.
Due to the Stepien Rule, barring teams from being without a first-round pick in consecutive upcoming years, the Sixers are not allowed to trade their 2021 first-round pick until after the 2020 Draft. If they trade a future first of their own, it would likely be their 2022 first-rounder -- and if they did, they wouldn’t be able to trade any more first-round picks that come before 2024. TLDR: if the Sixers trade a future first of their own, it better be for something good.
The Sixers own Oklahoma City’s 2020 first-round pick. They acquired it alongside Ersan Ilyasova in a trade, sent it to Orlando for the draft rights to Anzejs Pasecniks, and reacquired it in the Markelle Fultz trade. That was the most Bryan Colangelo sentence of all time.
While technically this a first-round pick, it is extremely unlikely that it conveys as such. The Sixers would receive the pick if it falls outside of the top 20 this year. If Not, Pick Will Convey As Two Second-Rounders. So if the Sixers trade this pick, you will see it reported as “Sixers trade first-round pick.” But it is close to being a fake first at this point.
The Sixers own Atlanta and New York’s 2020 second-round picks. Currently projected to be picks #31 and #33 in the 2020 Draft, these both hold noteworthy value. In an ideal world, I would like to see the Sixers use one of these two picks in a trade to find a meaningful rotation upgrade and hang onto the other to use in June.
The Sixers own their 2020 second-round pick as well as that of the Dallas Mavericks, acquired in the Nerlens Noel for Justin Anderson trade. Neither of these will have real value on their own, but either could be used a throw-in to top off a deal, or they could combined with each other.
And finally, the last bullet point about future second-round picks: the Sixers own two extra 2021 second-rounders (New York, Denver) and owe Houston the right to swap 2021 seconds. They don’t have their 2022 second-round pick, but do have Toronto’s. They own their 2023 second as well as the most favorable of Atlanta’s, Charlotte’s and Brooklyn’s. They own their 2024 second-rounder as well as Miami’s. The 2021 Knicks pick could be valuable in a trade right now, but the rest of these would, like the latter 2020 picks, be throw-ins.
While their first-round pick situation is a bit tough to manage, the massive surplus of second-rounders collected mostly by this front office Sam Hinkie will do the Sixers many favors over the next month.