Can Joel Embiid Really Win MVP Again
Can Joel Embiid Really Win MVP Again
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Somehow, some way, the NBA MVP conversation just never seems to change. For the fourth consecutive season, we are once again entrenched in a Nikola Jokic vs. Joel Embiid debate that is likely to burn intensely throughout the rest of the year. At the present moment, it is Embiid who seems to be favored, with the big fella holding a commanding lead in ESPN’s first straw poll of the year, and holding a strong lead in DraftKing’s betting odds for the award winner, as well.
Naturally, this raises a lot of questions among Sixers fans. Does Embiid deserve to win a second straight MVP? Would it be good for him mentally, or would it add too much pressure on him to succeed in the playoffs? Also, after years of the fanbase having to yell and scream for Embiid to be given a fair shake in this race, how is he now suddenly leading the polling by a long shot?
In case you’re new around here, I’ve made quite a stink over the past couple years about the way the voters and fans have discussed Nikola Jokic’s candidacy for MVP. I’ve made the point many, many times that I think things like voter fatigue and consideration of the external narrative are extremely valid and have also always been openly acknowledged, and that they were curiously being cast aside because they didn’t favor Jokic.
I do not believe the award should always go to the best player in the league. I’m pro-2001 Iverson MVP. I’m pro-2011 Rose MVP. I’m pro-2023 Embiid MVP. I’m pro-2017 Westbrook MVP, although that one may be stretching the limits of my beliefs just a bit. I generally want the award to go to the player who defined the storyline of that NBA season, even if they aren’t the consensus best player alive.
Last year, that argument strongly favored Embiid. This year, it probably hurts him. In the spirit of consistency, I have to acknowledge that Embiid’s candidacy should absolutely be dinged for the fact that he just won the award last season, and due to the fact that his flame out in the playoffs leaves a slightly bitter taste in your mouth from a narrative perspective. To be clear, I’m not saying he should be anywhere near disqualified – it should simply be treated like a golf handicap, quantified subjectively to your own liking.
But, the thing is… Embiid would likely be winning that race this year even with that handicap applied. He’s been that good – and, notably, Jokic has been playing slightly below his standards. Specifically, his scoring efficiency has gone from otherworldly to merely very good.
The other thing working strongly in Embiid’s favor is the fact that his improvement as well as Nick Nurse’s stylistic changes have bolstered Embiid’s stat profile in ways that have caused his advanced stats to skyrocket. I’ve been a staunch believer that all-in-one stats shouldn’t factor into the MVP discussion, but the fact of the matter is that they do, and none of my yelling is going to stop that. I’m not saying it’s right, I’m just saying that the fact that Embiid has improved in ways that the all-in-ones tend to value highly is going to do wonders for his MVP case.
Specifically, Embiid’s passing improvement has skyrocketed his offensive BPM (6.8 last year vs. 9.0 this year), despite the fact that his scoring efficiency is a tick worse, his free throw rate is down, and his turnovers are up. And yet, because his assist numbers have gone up, BPM shows him to be nearly 25 percent better overall on offense compared to last season – BPM states that the amount of improvement Embiid has made this season versus last season is essentially the same as the gap between C.J. McColllum and Kevin Durant this season as offensive players.
Additionally, BPM and other stats like it show Embiid to be playing the best defense of his career by a mile. To be clear, I don’t believe this to be the case – Embiid peaked as a defender 4-5 years ago when he made back-to-back All-Defense teams – even though I do believe he’s taken a step forward over last year. The fact that Embiid’s defensive rebounding, block rate, and steal rate have all ticked up, while his foul rate is down a tad, is likely what is contributing to his dramatic leap. Unfortunately, he still ranks 3rd in the league in defensive box plus-minus compared to Jokic’s 1st, which, lol.
As with most things related to all-in-one advanced stats, there’s a hint of truth to it. Embiid’s offensive game has been better, but not 25 freaking percent better. He is playing some of his best defense in years, but not four times better than he was when he made his last All-Defense team (0.9 in 2019 vs. 3.6 today). Nonetheless, he has improved in some areas that advanced stats value highly, which will undoubtedly sway some voters.
The other lingering question is how, exactly, Embiid and the fans would respond to him winning a second consecutive MVP. Would it create too much pressure for Embiid to succeed in the playoffs? Would it be looked back on as laughable if Embiid flames out in the second round again?
I don’t put much stock in the first question – I don’t think Embiid’s underwhelming performance against the Celtics had anything to do with him mentally stressing about living up to the MVP. The latter question is reasonable to ask, at the very least. There certainly have been a fair share of jokes and memes about the fact that Embiid consistently dominates the regular season, but never seems to hit that level in the postseason. But at least from the fan perspective, I don’t think that losing in the second round again would feel worse if Embiid wins the MVP. The two events would be completely disconnected in my mind.
The MVP award is, of course, a regular season award. Embiid has undeniably cemented himself as, at worst, the second best regular season player in the league. The fact that he finds himself in the inner circle of this race should surprise no one.
And, I’m not here to defend Embiid’s playoff performances or discount Jokic’s playoff history, but I did find it a bit funny that after two years of Jokic getting demolished in the playoffs, any criticism of it was quickly brushed away by the fact that it’s a regular season award, whereas when Embiid failed in the playoffs after winning MVP, suddenly it said something about his candidacy. Again, I do think it’s perfectly logical to consider the playoff performance of MVP candidates, I’m just pointing out a double standard.
So, to summarize, I would be happy to see Embiid win MVP again, and I do think it would be deserving if the season ended today – despite the fact that I think he should be dinged a bit for having just won and having flamed out in the playoffs last year. The fact that he’s improved in certain key categories that advanced stats love will undoubtedly help his candidacy. And as far as whether it adds to the pressure on him to succeed in the playoffs, I’m frankly not sure how the pressure could get higher than it already is. If he flames out in the second round, everyone is going to be livid regardless.
And so, I find myself mostly at peace with whatever happens in the MVP race. I’m not going to be banging my fists on the table for Embiid to win it like I was in 2022 and 2023, because I feel satisfied from him having won one MVP and I really only care about whether or not Embiid succeeds in the playoffs. I’m going to sit back and let the toxicity of the MVP discourse fall on other people’s shoulders while I sit back and enjoy watching this run that Embiid is on.