Joel Embiid Without Ben Simmons: What To Expect
Just what will Embiid look like without Ben Simmons?
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Throughout the entirety of the Joel Embiid-Ben Simmons era, we’ve done an awful lot of talking about how the two have contradicting styles and skill sets. They thrive at different paces of the game, they limit the spacing around one another, and they both like to operate around the rim.
While the two have combined to win a ton of games together and have always been an effective on-court duo from a net rating standpoint, we’ve always been left to wonder how each would fare without the other for an extended stretch from an individual production standpoint. This is especially true for Embiid, who because of Simmons’ durability, hasn’t played a ton of basketball without Simmons by his side over the past four seasons.
With the prevailing sense being that a Simmons trade is coming eventually, I figured it would be apt to go through the thought exercise of how Embiid’s game could change without Simmons by his side. Let’s dive in.
The single most significant area where you can expect a statistical change from Embiid is a decrease in 3-point attempts. In each of the past four seasons, Embiid has had a major, major drop-off in 3-point attempts when playing without Simmons, compared to when playing with him. In 2019-20, for example, Embiid took 6.5 3s per 100 possessions with Simmons on the court, and 3.8 3s with Simmons on the bench. This past year, it was 4.9 vs. 3.9, respectively.
The numbers tell a clear story there: a significant chunk of Embiid’s 3-point attempts come in an effort to space the floor for Simmons. When Simmons sits down, Embiid is less likely to hang around the perimeter and hunt 3s. It is likely that we’ll see Embiid occupying the dunker spot more often when playing off the ball, as Simmons’ vacancy there will leave space for him.
Along a similar line of logic: in three out of four seasons together, Embiid’s offensive rebounds have gone up significantly with Simmons off the floor. In 2019-20, he grabbed 3.2 offensive boards per 100 possessions when playing next to Simmons, compared to 6.0 with Simmons on the bench. This past year, he grabbed 2.8 per 100 possessions when playing with Simmons, compared to 4.9 when playing without him. This, again, is likely due to Embiid not having to space the floor when Simmons is on the bench, and thus spending more of his off-ball time hanging out around the rim. Further evidence of this claim is that Embiid’s defensive rebounding numbers don’t see nearly the same amount of increase depending on whether Simmons is on or off the floor.
Another general trend: Embiid’s individual scoring output goes way up with Simmons off the floor, but his efficiency goes down. This was the case in every year except this past one, in which both his points per 100 possessions (39.6 vs 53.6) and his true shooting percentage (61.9 vs 67.6) went up significantly without Simmons. In general, though, Simmons’ absence has led to more scoring, but worse efficiency for Mr. Embiid.
That trend is likely due not only to Simmons creating shots for Embiid, but also to the inherent trade-off between volume and efficiency. So of course, that trend may likely remain the case in a post-Simmons world -- it is not the case that Simmons is uniquely capable of upping Embiid’s efficiency. Having, say, C.J. McCollum shouldering some of the offensive load will also be better for Embiid’s efficiency.
Along the same lines of the volume/efficiency trade-off, it is likely that both Embiid’s assists and also turnovers will increase when Simmons sits. Such is the case when you rely more heavily on Embiid, and decrease the number of playmakers on the floor.
It is possible, though, that Embiid’s drop-off in efficiency in pre-2021 years may have had something to do with the quality of backup point guards that would come on the floor once Simmons sat. With a deeper rotation of guards this past year than in years prior, Embiid was not faced with the same difficulties when Simmons sat, thus explaining why Embiid’s efficiency did not plummet this past season when Simmons was on the bench.
All things considered, I’m not anticipating any major revolution in Embiid’s game with Simmons gone. So long as the player coming back in the trade can shoot, I would expect Embiid’s number of perimeter shots to decrease, and his offensive rebounds to increase. Unless the player coming back in return is a heavy duty playmaker, I’d expect his scoring volume to increase, and his efficiency to stagnate or decrease. And I’d expect his assists to go up, but his turnovers to go up, as well.
One area where Embiid might see some growth is as a pick and roll threat. If the player coming back in a trade is a savvy pick and roll player, I’d have little doubt that Embiid will reap some of the benefits there. We could see his frequency of shot attempts around the rim tick upwards a bit as a result.
It was never the case that taking Simmons out of the picture was going to transform Embiid into a completely different player. But the added spacing around him -- and relieving his need to space the floor for others -- will certainly make his life easier. As long as a playmaker comes back in return that can set Embiid up at the same frequency that Simmons did, I’d expect Embiid’s offense to be better as a result.
One last thing to think about: losing Simmons’ excellent perimeter defense might place more of a burden on Embiid defensively. While the difference is only marginal, Embiid’s number of blocked shots per 100 possessions went up with Simmons on the bench in three of the past four seasons. That is likely the result of having to attend to more shots around the rim with worse perimeter defenders out there -- a leakier perimeter defense means more meetings at the rim.