The Sixers Must Go All-In For Damian Lillard
The Sixers Must Go All-In For Damian Lillard
This is an easy decision.
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It was almost exactly six months ago that the Sixers nearly made a franchise altering trade for James Harden. In spite of the fact that the Sixers regrouped admirably in the immediate wake of those rumors, it’s always been a bit surprising to me how little discussion there’s been about the magnitude of missing out on that type of trade -- the Sixers nearly had one of the best scorers of this generation, and came up just short. That is a brutally painful loss, even despite the fact that the team ended up as the No. 1 seed in the conference and Harden’s season was derailed by injuries.
Who would’ve thought, though, that in another six months, we’d be back in this same type of situation -- with another generational player asking out, and the Sixers being considered among the frontrunners to land him.
In this case, though, the stakes feel even higher. After missing out on the Harden sweepstakes, the Sixers at least had a nice, stable foundation to fall back on. The team had finally built a well-fitted supporting cast around its two stars, and both fans and the organization were eager to see how it would work, even if all parties would’ve preferred a Harden trade. One monumental playoff implosion later, the stakes have gone up exponentially. The Sixers are going to trade Ben Simmons one way or another this offseason, and they had better get it right -- and what could possibly be a better outcome than landing Damian Lillard?
Given the need to trade Simmons, the uniqueness of a player like Lillard being available, and the need to maximize Joel Embiid’s prime, this is a deal that the Sixers simply have to get done. They are in a position to compete with just about any offer, and they have no excuse not to do it.
I imagine that over the coming weeks there will be a lot of hand-wringing over how much is too much to give up, and how the team could compete if they gut the entire roster around Lillard and Embiid. I would argue that those concerns are massively overblown.
A couple weeks back, I outlined a potential trade for Lillard. Here’s what I came up with:
Blazers get: Ben Simmons, Matisse Thybulle, Tyrese Maxey, 2021 first round pick (28th overall), 2023 unprotected first round pick, 2027 unprotected first round pick
Sixers get: Damian Lillard, Nassir Little
I imagine that any potential deal will look something like this, give or take a young player or a pick. That would leave the Sixers with the following players under contract for next year:
Embiid, Lillard, Little, Tobias Harris, Seth Curry, Shake Milton, George Hill, Isaiah Joe, Paul Reed. They would also have Danny Green’s bird rights -- I imagine they would be able to re-sign him -- and their taxpayer mid-level exception.
There would still be some maneuvering that the Sixers would be able to do with this roster. George Hill feels like a lock to be traded due to his salary -- likely for a wing. I imagine they might also look into a Seth Curry trade, given that a Lillard-Curry back court is disastrous defensively, plus Curry is the only rotation player left who has definitive positive trade value. Would the Celtics consider a Curry-Marcus Smart swap? Smart theoretically has more value, but is on an expiring deal and many around the league wonder if he’s lost a step defensively. The Celtics have also lacked a Curry-type shooter for their entire post-Big 3 era, and may be intrigued by the thought of playing him next to Tatum and Brown.
It’s possible that a Tobias Harris trade would make sense, as well. Harris’ scoring becomes slightly less necessary on a team with Lillard and Embiid, and it’s possible that he recouped enough value last season that teams would treat him a neutral asset. If there’s a way to use Harris as a means of acquiring either a couple of quality role players or a superior star talent, I’m sure Morey will investigate.
The Sixers will absolutely still have the tools to tinker with things in the immediate term, but here’s the important thing to consider: this is not a one year endeavor. You give Daryl Morey enough time with Lillard and Embiid on the roster, and he will build a championship team. Lillard is under contract for up to four more seasons (the last being a player option), and Embiid is supermax eligible this summer. If those two guys stay together and stay healthy long enough, I firmly believe they will win a championship.
The degree to which you’d have to gut the roster to acquire Lillard isn’t ideal, but it’s well worth it. Take a peek through the remainder of the 10 potential Simmons trades that I came up with. Unless Beal becomes available -- which there’s no indication that he will -- there is not a single other trade on that list that you can look at and confidently pencil the Sixers in as perennial contenders.
As for how the Sixers stack up against other potential suitors in the Lillard sweepstakes, I would argue that they are at the very top, given their combination of being a reasonably desirable destination, having the right roster fit, and having the most assets to send Portland’s way. The teams with massive pools of assets, like New Orleans or Oklahoma City, aren’t ready to contend just yet, and the Blazers would never send Lillard to such a situation. And while Lillard may possibly prefer being in the New York market over Philly, there is no shot that he looks at the Knicks’ roster and thinks that he’d have a better shot of winning there than with the Sixers.
Miami is perhaps another lurking threat. But even their list of assets is dwindling -- Duncan Robinson and Kendrick Nunn are free agents, Tyler Herro had a massively disappointing year, and Precious Achiuwa is an unknown. There is no shot that they can put together a package that rivals Philly without giving up Bam Adebayo, and if Adebayo is included, how exactly would they contend?
Maybe Miami swoops in and offers every draft pick from now until the end of time. Maybe Lillard simply demands to go to the Knicks. Maybe he wants to go home and play for the Warriors. But I just can’t see any of those being as desirable for both Portland and Lillard as a trade to the Sixers would be.
Philly makes the most sense to me, though that was also the case with the James Harden sweepstakes. We’ll never know what happened in those negotiations, but in all likelihood, it came down to the Sixers’ offer not being thoroughly better than Brooklyn’s offer. Even if it came down to a spite move from Tilman Fertitta, the Sixers are free from those types of challenges in this situation, and they can’t allow this opportunity to get away. They should be willing to offer absolutely whatever it takes to get Lillard on the same team as Joel Embiid, and go about building things from there. Lillard would be an absolute cult hero here, and I’d fully expect them to win a championship.