Eight Step Plan For The Sixers Offseason
It seems like we do these every year.
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While this loss is a significantly bigger disappointment than last year’s playoff exit, the one silver lining should be that the long term outlook on the team’s future isn’t as bleak as it once was. This past year has brought the Sixers some clear areas of progress -- they are in a better place now than they were a year ago.
If you’re not quite ready to think positive yet, AU has you covered with his rankings of who deserves the most blame for the collapse. But in case you are, here are the steps I think the Sixers should take in order to rebound for next season.
Step 1: Trade Ben Simmons
There should be almost no debate as to whether or not the Sixers should move on from Ben Simmons. Even though you could make a case that Simmons could rebuild some of his value if kept, or that they could build a better roster around him that could hide some of his weaknesses, I would argue that the mounting internal and external pressure is simply too high for him to stick around for another year.
To steal a point from Crossing Broad’s Kevin Kinkead, the situation feels a bit Carson Wentz-y. It just feels necessary for both sides to get a change of scenery -- Simmons desperately needs to get to a new team where he can either reinvent himself or be in a system that doesn’t ask him to do anything he’s not capable of.
Internally, I am not sure how the team could survive the psychological weight of going through another grind of a season with Simmons on the roster, knowing that this type of playoff performance is what’s waiting at the end. If I were Joel Embiid, I would not feel at all comfortable trusting Simmons from here on out.
The need to trade Ben goes far beyond basketball reasons -- and let’s not forget, there are plenty of basketball reasons, as well. We will certainly have plenty of content throughout the offseason on potential Simmons trades. I remain of the mindset that a C.J. McCollum swap is the most likely outcome, but we won’t dive too deep into that just yet. Let’s move onto the rest of the things that need to be taken care of this offseason.
Step 2: Offer Joel Embiid the supermax extension
After making second team All-NBA, Embiid is now eligible for a four-year supermax extension, which the Sixers can offer him this summer.
Joel Embiid's next contract is going to be fascinating.
If they negotiated an extension this summer, it would be for four more years (in addition to the two he has remaining), and would take him through his age 33 season, where he'd be eligible to make north of a projected $52m— Derek Bodner (@DerekBodnerNBA) June 16, 2021
There should be no debate as to whether the Sixers should offer that. Even with the possibility that his health turns this into a negative value contract down the line, trading Simmons and then punting on an Embiid extension would turn this franchise into a rudderless ship. Embiid is the franchise anchor, and the Sixers should be willing to pay him whatever is necessary.
Step 3: re-sign Danny Green
Green said in his exit interview earlier today that Doc Rivers told him he expects him back. If I’m the Sixers, I’d work hard to bring Green back, for multiple reasons.
First off, Green had an excellent year and is a strong fit on this roster regardless of what it looks like next year. Second, the Sixers have Green’s bird rights, so they can sign him to a reasonable deal despite being over the cap, whereas they wouldn’t be able to do so on the open market. Third, Green’s contract (assuming that it’s in the $10-15 million range) would be useful to have in the event of a trade. More on that in a bit.
Green’s leadership, overall play, and likely contract value make re-signing him of utmost importance.
Step 4: Guarantee George Hill’s contract for next season
George Hill is on the books for $10 million next season, of which he’s guaranteed only $1.3 million. The Sixers could cut ties with him and save $8.7 million, but despite his terribly underwhelming play, they most definitely should guarantee his contract.
There is a chance that Hill could rebound and look slightly better next season, but that’s not the reason to pay him. The reason is that Hill’s contract, like Green’s, is extremely useful in a potential trade for next season. Say, for example, an All-Star somewhere demands out and the Sixers want to get in on the sweepstakes. They could package Hill and Green and they would immediately be at the point where they can match salaries (they would obviously also have to include a bunch of young players and picks.
Without guaranteeing Hill and re-signing Green, that possibility is pretty much off the table. Even if the trade target of choice is simply a solid player at a lower salary, having Hill’s contract to be able to match salary is invaluable.
Step 5: use the MLE on a legitimate backup center
My feelings are a bit mixed on Dwight Howard. On one hand, he had a very respectable regular season, and he would be even more valuable on a team that doesn’t have Ben Simmons. On the other hand, he’s 36, and he was a trainwreck when it counted in the playoffs, for reasons that had nothing to do with Simmons.
The Sixers should be a prime destination for any mid-level free agent center. Embiid is virtually guaranteed to miss 15+ games per season, and should ideally hope to stay around 32 minutes per game. There is ample opportunity for any center who wants to prove that they are worthy of a starting spot in the league. Nerlens Noel, for example, did just that in New York after signing for the mid-level last offseason.
Candidates for such a place on the Sixers this go around include Gorgui Dieng, Zach Collins, or perhaps a Tony Bradley reunion. None of these guys are life changers, and perhaps it would be wise to acquire a better backup center via trade, but the bottom line is that they need someone in this role who will be reliable and playable under any circumstances.
Step 6: Acquire another wing defender one way or another
I don’t care if it’s some form of sign and trade, moving up in the draft, or any other magic act that Daryl Morey pulls out of his hat. If the Sixers trade Simmons, they’re going to need more bodies on the wing.
Moving on from Simmons in favor of a guard like C.J. McCollum would leave Matisse Thybulle, Danny Green, and Tobias Harris as the only players on the roster who could feasibly be described as wings. While I do think Thybulle would be ready to take on a much bigger role in the absence of Simmons, they will simply need more bodies to defend the likes of Kevin Durant, Khris Middleton, Jayson Tatum, Jimmy Butler, etc. etc. in the playoffs for years to come.
Perhaps that means signing P.J. Tucker to the MLE and looking elsewhere for a center. Perhaps it means signing a couple of minimum level veterans like James Ennis or Trevor Ariza and hoping one of them works out. Perhaps it means including a young player and a pick or two in a McCollum-Simmons trade in hopes that you could pry back Robert Covington.
While these playoffs have proven that wing defense isn’t the be-all, end-all, the Sixers will still be in need of more bodies after the departure of Simmons. Morey needs to find a way to fill that hole.
Step 7: Fill whatever holes emerge on the coaching staff, but keep Doc Rivers
I understand the urge within the fanbase to want to fire Doc Rivers, but there is simply no way that the Sixers can do that. Rivers is making $8 million per year for the next four years (gulp), and cutting him loose would inevitably mean having to cut costs elsewhere, even though it doesn’t count against the salary cap.
Rivers is, at the very least, a good regular season coach. I would hope that with him being free from Ben Simmons, and thus having to abandon his Detrickian-level infatuation of him, would allow him to do a slightly better job. I am not saying that my confidence in Rivers is unwavered, but I do think that it’s not feasible to cut him loose, and there is some hope that he could be better in the future.
Step 8: Pray that the youngins develop
Other than a Simmons trade and some moves around the edges, the Sixers unfortunately don’t have a ton of immediate flexibility. Their best hope for ascending moving forward is getting maximal value for Simmons and then hoping that players like Tyrese Maxey, Shake Milton, Matisse Thybulle, and even Isaiah Joe and Paul Reed are able to reach their potential.
I would argue that the ideal starting five for next year’s team looks something like this: Maxey, McCollum, Thybulle or Green, Harris, Embiid. That would obviously push Seth Curry to the bench, but in the event that they acquire McCollum, I think you’ll need a more point guard-minded player in the starting lineup (Maxey). This also assumes some level of development for Maxey, which I fully expect to happen.
Thybulle being able to shoulder starter-level minutes hinges entirely on his shot development. This year was not particularly encouraging in that regard, but it can’t be written off. If they have to start Green, so be it, but it would certainly benefit them to have a bit more physicality and individual defense than Green can offer at this stage.
It’s unclear how valuable Milton is anymore, or if Joe and Reed are even rotation players. Perhaps they would be good to throw in as sweeteners in some potential trade. Regardless, development from the guys they keep is going to play a real role in their success next season.