Four Questions About James Harden's Future
Four Questions About James Harden's Future
The Sixers’ fan base is (justifiably) terrified of the prospect of Harden having to go against quality wing defenders in the playoffs.
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Last week, in the midst of watching James Harden get stifled over and over again by the Toronto Raptors’ defense, I remembered a simple fact that made me scratch my head. Just two seasons ago — a season that ended 18 months ago — James Harden averaged 34.3 points per game. Thirty-four point three. In 21 games with the Sixers this season, Mr. Harden did not once crack his average (!) from two years ago of 34; in fact, he crossed the 30 point threshold just once.
Watching the player that we all watched over the past several weeks, it’s almost impossible to fathom that this guy was quite recently an offensive dynamo who scored in the mid-thirties on a nightly basis. That season, Harden scored below 30 points just 24 times in 68 games. He was a truly unstoppable scorer who made 40 and 50 point games look easy.
Fast forward 18 months, and now the Sixers’ fan base is (justifiably) terrified of the prospect of Harden having to go against quality wing defenders in the playoffs. The fall-off has happened at lightning speed, and has left the Sixers at an incredibly difficult crossroads with the possibility of a lucrative contract extension looming.
Here in this piece, I’ll go through four important questions on the Harden situation, including what the chances are that he’ll bounce back next season, and the chances that the Sixers simply let him walk.
Can Harden re-write the narrative in the playoffs?
As concerning as the past several weeks have been, there is, of course, still the potential for Harden to restore confidence in him throughout the playoffs. If he shows up looking closer to who he used to be on a nightly basis, fans will clamor to bring him back, and will forget all of the weirdness that preceded it (see: Butler, Jimmy).
Needless to say, I am not expecting that to happen. Harden has always gone down a level in the postseason, not up, and his limitations look more related to lacking burst and quickness than lacking focus and energy.
While Harden’s focus and overall exertion level on a possession-by-possession basis, the bulk of the problem here is a player who is declining athletically, rather than a player who is disinterested and lazy.
Throw in the fact that teams will be laser-focused on scheming against him, and that Harden won’t draw quite as many foul calls as he does in the regular season, and I’m buckling up for disappointment. Every Sixers fan would welcome the opposite, but I’m expecting the Harden we see in the playoffs to be largely the same guy we saw in these 21 games.
Can Harden look closer to being his old self after the off-season?
As negative as I may sound about the outlook on this season, I remain strangely confident that Harden can and will improve after a full offseason.
After not being able to play pickup for all of last summer due to his hamstring injury, Harden could surely use time away to rest, recover, get back into shape, and perhaps reinvent his game a bit.
This does, of course, operate under the premise that it’s Harden’s hamstring (and the lack of conditioning that resulted from it) holding him back, rather than simply an older player naturally losing the pop he once had. There is no fool-proof way to confirm or deny that hypothesis, but after watching a whole bunch of film from the 2020 playoffs, I walked away with that conclusion. He’s not only moving slower, he’s moving differently. He’s not just slower, he’s clunkier, and seems less sure of every step. Again, I’m not a doctor, but my unscientific observation left me with the conclusion that Harden’s hamstring is at least playing a role here.
If Harden is able to recoup some of his burst, the next step for him would be to alter his game a tad. For starters, you’d like to see him embrace more of the responsibilities that would come with being the team’s 2B option behind Embiid and Maxey — shooting more 3s, being more active off the ball, and cutting down on his never ending dribble routines from the top of the key.
Harden would also benefit from working more on his midrange skill set, as his finishing at the rim continues to decline. He’d need to invest more in his ability to pull up while moving downhill, and also refine his floater game.
Harden would not be the first player to have a down year in his early thirties and then bounce back. Chris Paul is the best recent example of that. If these things all happen — recovering physically, altering his play style slightly, and adding one or two new skills — there is still a max-level player here. But if they don’t happen, you must ask the question…
Can you justify extending Harden if this is simply who he is now?
I’ll keep this short and sweet: no. If you believe that Harden is likely to remain at or below his current level as a player, there is absolutely no way you can give him that five-year, $200 million extension through his age 38 season.
It’s a difficult decision, because as I laid out, I think the chances of Harden bouncing back next season are very real. Daryl Morey will have to base his decision off of the medical evaluations of Harden, his level of belief in Harden’s willingness to work hard, bounce back, and buy-in, and his opinion on the alternative options. Which brings us to…
What would happen if the Sixers were to let him walk?
There are a number of ways this could go. One option would be for Harden to opt into his contract for next season, and for the Sixers to then ship him off to a new destination, who would presumably give Harden his next contract.
Things can get super interesting here — the Sixers could then also try to ship off Tobias Harris, and suddenly have multiple max slots in cap space. As for what they’d do with that, it remains unclear. Bradley Beal has a player option, but it feels likely at this point that he’ll opt in. The rest of the free agency class isn’t all that inspiring, but might still be better than giving Harden $200 million.
In terms of who would take on Harden, surely there are teams out there who are desperate enough to take that chance. Just to name one possibility: the Knicks would take Harden, and ship matching salaries to OKC in a 3-way deal.
There is also the possibility that Harden is content to walk in free agency if the Sixers decline to offer him an extension. That would be the cleanest and easiest exit, and would give the Sixers the most future flexibility.
I’m still inclined to say the Sixers should extend Harden and hope that he bounces back and evolves, but if he truly shits the bed in the playoffs, it is at least somewhat comforting knowing that the Sixers have the ability to simply let him walk. Losing him after giving up a whole bunch of assets for him a few months ago would be difficult, but having Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey, and a whole bunch of cap space isn’t the worst place to restart your franchise from. Let’s hope that Harden proves us all wrong, and that we never have to seriously entertain this conversation to begin with.