Sixers Notebook: Ben Simmons' Struggles, The Bench, The Buyout Market
Sixers Notebook: Ben Simmons' Struggles, The Bench, The Buyout Market
So who is the real Ben Simmons?
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The Sixers’ season is two-thirds finished, and they’re just about to get their MVP candidate back for the home stretch. Fortunately, the rest of the squad was able to hold down the fort in the absence, posting a 9-3 record without him. Here, I’ll post some observations from the recent stretch of games, as well as talk about some potential options on the buyout market.
Ben Simmons’ poor offensive play
About a month ago, just after the All-Star break, I wrote an in-depth piece about Ben Simmons’ offensive performance in the preceding weeks. Simmons was scoring at an incredible combination of volume and efficiency, and looked to have turned the corner after his poor start to the season.
However, in the weeks following that piece, Simmons has failed to continue that pace, and has looked more like the player that he was at the beginning of the season. Just look at his scoring numbers from different stretches of the season:
Dec. 23 - Jan. 22: 12.4 ppg on 55.5 TS%
Jan. 23 - Mar. 3: 18.9 ppg on 65.1 TS%
Mar. 4 - Apr. 2: 13.4 ppg on 48.1 TS%
In some ways, it’s mind blowing that Simmons can oscillate between the best and worst versions of himself for several weeks at a time. But at a certain point, this is simply who he is -- a player who lacks consistency on the offensive end.
Anyone acting as if either one of these versions is the real Simmons is deceiving themselves. I think it’s about time to put to rest the idea that every good Simmons stretch means that he’s “turned the corner.” And at the same time, we can also do away with the idea that every poor Simmons stretch is some sort of unmasking of him as a fraudulent offensive player.
The reality is that Simmons will likely alternate back and forth for the foreseeable future, on either a weekly or nightly basis, across the wide scale of variance that he has. You can criticize him for lack of consistency and improvement, but that’s about all you can say. End of the day, his season averages are almost exactly the same as they’ve been for the rest of his career.
Of course, one thing that many have pinpointed as a potential cause of his recent downturn in scoring is the fact that Joel Embiid has been out, and Simmons has been forced to play more minutes with Dwight Howard. Problem is, that assertion isn’t really supported by the data. Over the past month, Simmons has scored more points per 100 possessions (20.2 vs. 18.9) and has shot far better (54.5% vs 45.2%) from the field while playing next to Howard.
The recent downturn in Simmons’ offense is less about his surroundings and more about the sheer fact that he isn’t playing well. He’s been miserable finishing around the rim. He’s drawing fewer fouls. He’s turning the ball over more often. It’s just a bad showing all around.
Simmons will eventually turn it around once again. I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see him finish the season on a tear. Perhaps he has some nagging injuries that get cleared up, and that helps him take off. But the fact that he’s had such a wild degree of variance to his performance this year can’t be ignored. There is a definite Jekyll and Hyde dynamic to Simmons’ offensive game that will likely always be there.
The latest on the bench
With Embiid and others missing some time of late, we’ve gotten a deeper look at the bench than we might ordinarily get. With that, allow me to run through some recent observations from the bench players.
If this is it for Tyrese Maxey’s rookie season (I’m assuming George Hill’s impending arrival will knock him out of the rotation for good), I have to say I’m still extremely optimistic about him moving forward. While Maxey spent most of the past six weeks out of the rotation, his recent re-emergence was another encouraging sign for his future.
In general, I thought Maxey looked more under control and slightly more confident as a jump shooter during this recent stretch. On film, it looks like his release point may even be a tad bit higher on his shot, which would be a welcomed adjustment.
Maxey was likely never going to play a huge role on this team given the fit, and the fact that they’re in win-now mode. On a weaker team, I could easily see Maxey playing starter-level minutes, averaging 12 or so points per game and generating a heck of a lot more buzz. To me, Maxey has shown enough to be considered a key part of this core moving forward. Mild improvement to his jumper, plus minor improvements elsewhere will make him a valuable NBA player.
Another note: boy, the Mike Scott experience has been brutal this season (and last season, as well). Even despite his 2019-present struggles, I’d always held out a sliver of belief that Scott could have a moment or two in a playoff series where he makes a big shot. I am losing hope in that hypothetical scenario. I would love to be proven wrong, but I can’t imagine it happening. He’s cooked. I would play BBall Paul over him.
The buyout market
While the big fish are already gone, I still think this has the potential to be a really strong buyout market. The three players who I would have my eye on if I were the Sixers are Wayne Ellington, Otto Porter, Jr. and Kelly Olynyk.
Ellington is having an excellent season in Detroit, taking 6.3 3s a game and making 43 percent of them. Because of his ability to fly around screens and hit 3s on the move, I could more easily see him having an impact in a playoff series than Furkan Korkmaz.
Olynyk is probably the most interesting buyout candidate out of these three. Bringing in a true stretch-five to play next to Simmons would be somewhat of a game changer offensively. Olynyk is battle tested and has played a role in a whole bunch of physical playoff games. The Sixers could also use him at the four, next to Joel Embiid, which would help to replace Mike Scott’s minutes entirely.
Porter, Jr. could also eliminate Scott from the rotation. He offers the least offensive pop out of this bunch, but he’d give them another long, strong body to defend the star wings that they’d come across in the playoffs.
The buyout market is fickle. It’s unclear who will get bought out and when, but it seems Daryl Morey and Doc Rivers are confident that at least one player will be coming to Philly. If the Sixers can manage to add one or two players out of this bunch, they’ll give their bench a huge boost for the playoff run.