James Harden Is Not The Sixers Biggest Problem
At this stage, it feels like the Sixers simply don’t look the part.
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We’re 16 games into the James Harden era, and the results have been, shall we say, mixed. Despite Harden averaging nearly 23 and 10 on 62 percent True Shooting, most would agree he’s been a disappointment, and there is a lack of confidence from the NBA community at large about the Sixers’ chances of a deep playoff run.
I would now consider myself in agreement with that consensus, despite having shown more confidence than that just a couple of weeks ago. However, my concern is frankly less about Harden and more about, well, everything else.
Even in Harden’s diminished form, he is still good enough to be a No. 2 on a championship team. Between Harden, Embiid, Maxey, and Harris, the Sixers have as much half court shot creation as any team in the league. There are still fit and play style issues to be worked out, but the Sixers will be just fine in terms of half court offense – they simply have too many good players.
Previously, I’d defaulted to the belief that elite shot creation will take them a long way in the playoffs, but as the other holes in the roster have become more apparent, I’m no longer so sure. The reality is that this team is mentally and physically soft, and lacks the cohesion and discipline of championship caliber teams. They get out-muscled and out-hustled on a regular basis, they lose focus in big games and big moments, and commit all sorts of small mental mistakes that championship teams simply don’t make.
They are a team very much lacking in athleticism and toughness, and you can see that quite clearly against the league’s elite teams. Giannis Antetokounmpo stampeded his way to the basket regardless of the coverage on Tuesday night, due to the fact that no wing on the Sixers has the physical profile to function as anything more than a saloon door against him. They lack the size and toughness on the wing in a way that none of the recent championship teams did.
I compared this year’s team to the 2018-19 Sixers as a case for being optimistic about their playoff hopes, but one thing I may have forgotten to consider is the sheer difference in muscle; Butler and Simmons were an absolute bitch to go against from a physicality perspective, whereas a wing rotation of Thybulle, Harris, Georges Niang, and Danny Green is incredibly unimposing in terms of physicality.
That Sixers team discovered another gear on both ends of the floor in the postseason. I’m confident that this group can hit another level on offense, but their defense is a massive question mark. They are simply not up to the task mentally or physically; they can neither hang with teams athletically, nor stay connected enough to make teams work through multiple progressions.
In crunch time of the Bucks game, Milwaukee ran “Spain” pick and rolls over and over again, and got easy shot after easy shot due to miscommunications between Harden, Harris, and Niang – ultimately an unsurprising development given all three players’ reputations. While Embiid and Harden were moving mountains to create shots on offense, the Bucks were finding themselves with wide open looks from one simple action:
While I have plenty of criticisms to levy towards Doc Rivers, this is a personnel issue that has been with the team all season. Ben Simmons’ departure has left a massive hole in the terms of defense, physicality, and rebounding, and the Sixers made absolutely no investment last offseason in trying to replace that – something that undoubtedly falls on Daryl Morey, who should have prioritized this area knowing that Simmons was not returning.
Moving forward this season, not much can be done to improve these issues, but one thing I’d try that could yield minor benefits is starting Danny Green over Matisse Thybulle. Yes, it doesn’t resolve the athleticism issue, but he would elevate the offense to a new level, he doesn’t make mental mistakes on defense, and he’s an excellent communicator who tends to make your team’s defensive cohesion better just by being on the floor. In the above clips, for example, it’s difficult to imagine Green being involved in two consecutive miscommunications on the same exact set play.
In addition to being the worst offensive player in the league, Thybulle simply does not have the type of fundamentally sound habits that become contagious and boost your team’s defensive cohesion; his steals, blocks, and deflections come largely as a result of his own fantastic gambles, rather than from covering up the mistakes of his teammates. He is a brilliant defender, but he is far from the most fundamentally sound defender, and this team is more so in need of a connector than a gambling playmaker.
This offseason, the Sixers desperately need to add muscle, IQ, and versatility on the wing, but that’s a conversation for another time. The bottom line is that very little can be done to change the identity of this team, and I don’t think that a team with this identity can win a championship.
The optimistic case is this: Embiid will rise to a new level defensively in the playoffs, the Sixers can throw out some gimmicky defenses to throw off opposing stars, and their half court offense will be too damn good for other teams to keep up with.
That is all certainly possible, but at this stage, it feels like the Sixers simply don’t look the part. They have enough top-end talent to compete with anyone, but their lack of size, athleticism, toughness, and IQ seems very difficult to overcome. It is on Doc Rivers and his staff to extract as much as possible from this group in those areas, but for now, this team simply doesn’t look the part. They are not the least bit scary on defense, and they are formidable, but not overwhelming offensively. It seems most likely that this year’s team just will not be quite enough.